Articles by Francisco Vidal

About the Author

Francisco Vidal
Francisco Vidal is Chief Economist at Intermoney. Since 2006, his professional career has been focused on elaborating economic analysis for the group, which has become a reference for financial intermediation in Spain. This is a situation which has allowed him to specialise in the interrelationship between the real and the financial economy, as well as the study of monetary policy.
The yuan rose above 6.8 to the dollar

The Market Risks That Can Spoil August (IV): The Yuan

Intermoney | The unanimous approval by the Senate of a law to reduce or eliminate the tariffs applied to around 1,660 products made outside the US, of which half are made in China, could be the perfect excuse for Trump to return to the charge on trade attacks on Chinese interests. However, as we have insisted over the last few weeks, the key to the summer from a Chinese perspective, could lie more in the yuan than trade issues.


The situation of emerging markets is concerning

August 2018 Risks (III): The Different Concerns Of Emerging Markets

Intermoney | Other risks to which we must pay attention are those arising from emerging markets. In this case, one should not focus only on one country, as there are numerous fronts open. For example, the latest update to the IMF forecasts cut the growth forecasts for Argentina and Brazil, stressing the more difficult finanacial conditions and the need for adjustments to the Argentinian economy while, in the case of Brazil, it stressed the effect of strikes and political instability.


Facebook and Twitter are suffering the burden of unsatisfactory user data

Risks For August (II): Facebook And Twitter Recall Concerns About The Tech Sector

Facebook and Twitter have been significantly punished by investors following figures about users which created doubts about the performance of both companies in the future. In the first case, the number of users active per month increased 1.74% in 2018 to pass from 2.196 millions to 2.234 million, disappointing market expectations and delivering the smallest increase since Facebook provided figures.



New episodes of tension originating in Italy could affect other peripheral countries

Is Spain Better Than Italy?

Now “the waters appear to have calmed” in Italy, analysts at Intermoney, however, believe we will see more episodes of tension originating in Italy. The key moment is likely to come at the end of the summer or in the autumn. This situation should be seen as a scenario for tension rather than rupture, although contagion to other peripheral economies could be possible.



Spain has had a "debt pending” in terms of budgetary stability.

Going Around In Circles With Budgetary Stability

For a long time, Spain has had a “debt pending” in terms of budgetary stability. And, for the time being, the current scenario leads us to think that balancing the public finances is a difficult objective to achieve in the medium-term. Added to that problem is the high level of government debt.



Figures for consumption in the Eurozone were disappointing during the early part of 2018

Europeans Purchasing Power is Rising; Consumption will Recover

Francisco Vidal | The demand for credit from households continues to rise in the EMU and, in particular, consumer credit. Entries for lending of M3, once the figures have been seasonally-adjusted and the effect of certain changes in the perimeter have been factored in, showed that loans to households are growing at a rate of 3.0% annually, led by those earmarked for consumption (+ 7% annually)


Germany's motor is greased

Germany: The Motor Is Greased

In total, despite the big recession, the German economy has grown 26% so far this century and, even more importantly, 20% from the minimums of Q1’09. It is currently experiencing one of its best moments since the “V” exit from the big crisis.