J. P. Marín-Arrese | The latest trade offensive launched against China will inevitably escalate into full-fledged warfare. Imposing tariffs on 200 billion imports amounts to a vicious and indiscriminate attack triggered by mere irritation at the counter-veiling measures undertaken by the Asian giant. Unleashing such large-scale hostilities will raise the stakes prompting further bouts of unfettered retaliation on both sides. The US is already threatening to punish all trade flows totalling 500 billion.
Articles by JP Marin Arrese
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J. P. Marín-Arrese | Faced with a humiliating snub from Parliament, Ms May had to drop plans for going ahead with a hard Brexit, whatever the price. As she has suddenly switched to a confusing soft-exit proposal, Mr Davis wisely refused to carry it through. His resignation shows to what extent the UK has become cornered with no conceivable way out at hand. Johnson’s resignation shows the open rift and represents a direct challenge to Ms May’s leadership.
Juan Pedro Marín-Arrese | From the start the new Spanish government has voiced its staunch pro-European stance. A most welcome move when other core countries drift apart, either through complete withdrawal like the UK or proving a real nuisance like Italy. Not to mention some Eastern Member States waging an open rebellion by snubbing key democratic principles enshrined in the Union Treaty.
J.P. Marín Arrese | PM Pedro Sánchez will govern backed by a weak minority party. There will be little respite from either those who voted for him or those who voted against him. No one expects the new Spanish government can deliver any substantive policies. Yet, such an isolated and weak position can also be a valuable asset.
The 2018 budgets predict very optimistic increases in revenues (+6% in some taxes). But there is no real risk of non-compliance if spending remains tightly controlled.
In his first press conference, Jerome Powell baffled both the experts and the markets. After reading the hawkish introductory statement, he defused all fears for a harsh and swift monetary tightening.
By issuing digital money, the central banks could provide an answer for the substitution of jobs by robotization, or solve the problem of excessive public debt, easing the increasing pressure on finances from burdens like pensions.
In his first congressional testimony, Jerome Powell delivered an upbeat appraisal of the US economy. In his own words, headwinds have turned into tailwinds. While avoiding any commitment on the plausible monetary stance, markets have discounted a faster pace in rate hikes, pushing bond yields to fresh highs.
Many argue that Spain lacks a proper government, with the one in office proving unable to secure parliamentary backing for the 2018 general budget.