Articles by JP Marin Arrese

About the Author

JP Marin Arrese
Juan Pedro Marín Arrese is a Madrid-based economic analyst and observer. He regularly publishes articles in the Spanish leading financial newspaper 'Expansión'.
Impact of trade war on world trade

Trump’s Warlord Behaviour On Trade Will Cripple Confidence

J. P. Marín-Arrese | The latest trade offensive launched against China will inevitably escalate into full-fledged warfare. Imposing tariffs on 200 billion imports amounts to a vicious and indiscriminate attack triggered by mere irritation at the counter-veiling measures undertaken by the Asian giant. Unleashing such large-scale hostilities will raise the stakes prompting further bouts of unfettered retaliation on both sides. The US is already threatening to punish all trade flows totalling 500 billion.


Even before PM Theresa May undertakes further moves, the Tories seem torn apart

Brexit No Longer Holds The Tories Together

J. P. Marín-Arrese | Faced with a humiliating snub from Parliament, Ms May had to drop plans for going ahead with a hard Brexit, whatever the price. As she has suddenly switched to a confusing soft-exit proposal, Mr Davis wisely refused to carry it through. His resignation shows to what extent the UK has become cornered with no conceivable way out at hand. Johnson’s resignation shows the open rift and represents a direct challenge to Ms May’s leadership.


Spain should position itself on Europe’s main issues

Juan Pedro Marín-Arrese | From the start the new Spanish government has voiced its staunch pro-European stance. A most welcome move when other core countries drift apart, either through complete withdrawal like the UK or proving a real nuisance like Italy. Not to mention some Eastern Member States waging an open rebellion by snubbing key democratic principles enshrined in the Union Treaty.


When it comes to sending messages to the market, central banker develop their own language.

Central Bankers’ Language Does Matter

J.P. Marin-Arrese | When it comes to sending messages to the market, Jerome Powell is proving less conventional and more straightforward than Mario Draghi. The former added fuel to the fire by delivering a forthright appraisal of the strength of US growth, the latter announced the ECB would scrap the QE scheme by the end of the year.


PM Pedro Sánchez will govern backed by a weak minority party

The New Spanish Government Holds Win-Win Cards

J.P. Marín Arrese | PM Pedro Sánchez will govern backed by a weak minority party. There will be little respite from either those who voted for him or those who voted against him. No one expects the new Spanish government can deliver any substantive policies. Yet, such an isolated and weak position can also be a valuable asset.



Jerome Powell baffled both the experts and the markets

Jerome Powell ditches forward guidance

In his first press conference, Jerome Powell baffled both the experts and the markets. After reading the hawkish introductory statement, he defused all fears for a harsh and swift monetary tightening.


Issuing digital money can be an answer for the public debt

The Economy of Digital Money

By issuing digital money, the central banks could provide an answer for the substitution of jobs by robotization, or solve the problem of excessive public debt, easing the increasing pressure on finances from burdens like pensions.


Jerome Powell delivered an upbeat appraisal of the US economy

Bullish Powell Fuels Higher Rates

In his first congressional testimony, Jerome Powell delivered an upbeat appraisal of the US economy. In his own words, headwinds have turned into tailwinds. While avoiding any commitment on the plausible monetary stance, markets have discounted a faster pace in rate hikes, pushing bond yields to fresh highs.