The wall with Mexico, which the crazy US President Donald Trump had ordered to be built and financed by imposing a 20% tariff on Mexican imports, will end up being paid for by the Americans – although the impact for Mexico will be far from negligible.
Articles by Miguel Navascués
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There is an increasing risk in French politics that Marine Le Pen will be victorious, which is fuelling a rise in the differential between the German and French bond to a four-year maximum. The markets are increasingly more sensitive, and it’s not just France. There are no political candidates left who do not pose a threat.
Greece’s creditor countries in Europe do not feel like giving it a debt ‘haircut’. Furthermore, Greece says that the IMF is too pessimistic about the future. But Europe wants the IMF’s participation, which would give the agreement a greater hallmark of respectability.
Germany’s external trade figures are an insult for the EU and the euro- it reaches the incredible figure of 300 billion euros, or 9% of GDP. It doesn’t look like the US would be too unhappy about getting rid of the single currency, with the help of Le Pen and others.
Reagan is a precedent for Trump as Krugman says. We can envisage what Trump’s early years will be like thanks to Reagan. And we could see a similar situation to what was known in the Reagan years as the twin deficits due to the size of the fiscal and external deficits.
As you all very well know, Spanish social democracy is in the dolrums. The PSOE, the one-time influential left-wing party, is now in tatters and without any visible head to start rebuilding it. We have the same panorama in the rest of Europe, in France for example, where Manuel Valls failed in the primaries despite being Prime Minister.
Donald Trump started his mandate with a speech which gave a glimpse of worrying issues. Amongst the points to be highlighted are his promises of increased protectionism against imports, a harder stance against immigration and a huge dose of populism. For Donald’s kind of populism.
Inflation is back. The first stage has been the rise in oil prices from $30 to $50 per barrel, which is already being passed on to the consumer economies. Too much inflation is a bad thing: it creates rising expectations and people try to anticipate them. But too little is even worse. The 2008 crisis caused a very costly deflation. .
I have read that since the arrival of Rajoy, the number of unemployed people has fallen by 1.3 million. Well done! But more than half of that corresponds to the drop in the Spain’s active population, who are not confident about finding work.
We can expect a rise in interest rates in 2017, driven up by the Fed, but fuelled by doubts over Europe. And I would bet the dollar will appreciate against the euro and the yuan – and sterling – although I am not normally a betting man.