Articles by Miguel Navascués

About the Author

Miguel Navascués
Miguel Navascués has worked as an economist at the Bank of Spain for 30 years, and focuses on international and monetary economics. He blogs in Spanish at: http://http://www.miguelnavascues.com/

France's risk premium

France’s Risk Premium Is Taking Off Ahead Of Presidential Elections

There is an increasing risk in French politics that Marine Le Pen will be victorious, which is fuelling a rise in the differential between the German and French bond to a four-year maximum. The markets are increasingly more sensitive, and it’s not just France. There are no political candidates left who do not pose a threat.



exports-spanish2

The Eurozone should avoid a trade war- Trump would be so happy

Germany’s external trade figures are an insult for the EU and the euro- it reaches the incredible figure of 300 billion euros, or 9% of GDP. It doesn’t look like the US would be too unhappy about getting rid of the single currency, with the help of Le Pen and others.



Social democracy

Requiem For Social Democracy in Europe

As you all very well know, Spanish social democracy is in the dolrums. The PSOE, the one-time influential left-wing party, is now in tatters and without any visible head to start rebuilding it. We have the same panorama in the rest of Europe, in France for example, where Manuel Valls failed in the primaries despite being Prime Minister.



inflation returns

The Much Anticipated Return Of Inflation

Inflation is back. The first stage has been the rise in oil prices from $30 to $50 per barrel, which is already being passed on to the consumer economies. Too much inflation is a bad thing: it creates rising expectations and people try to anticipate them. But too little is even worse. The 2008 crisis caused a very costly deflation. .