Articles by Miguel Navascués

About the Author

Miguel Navascués
Miguel Navascués has worked as an economist at the Bank of Spain for 30 years, and focuses on international and monetary economics. He blogs in Spanish at: http://http://www.miguelnavascues.com/
emerging markets are investor's Achilles heel those days

Emerging Markets: Ever more in doubt

Miguel Navascués | Emerging markets continue seething and carry with them ever less confidence. The latest sign is that the flight of capital has sought refuge in US bonds (and in Wall Street, a new record), among other destinations, and has reduced the yield curve to a minimum of many years of 0.23%.


Markets Already Fear Trade Dispute Will Impact Growth

Global GDP could contract given that reduced production translates into reduced demand for non commercial goods – for example US services which are not exported – which impacts in a contraction of demand. Idem in the other countries. In other words, the decline will be in global demand, not just in comercial but all.


Retail interest rates are high compared to other Eurozone's countries

The “Usurious” Interest Rates Of Spanish Banks

Miguel Navascués | The high retail interest rates in Spain, over 8% compared to at least 4% in France and other Eurozone countries, without doubt indicates usurious behavior, of the banks’ abuse of power at the expense of the customer, who on the other hand ought to inform and educate himself and refuse to pay these rates. I would say that, in fact, there is an oligopolistic factor in Spanish banking which stamps its slant on the interest rates it charges.


The debt of Rajoy and Sanchez

The Debt of Rajoy and Sanchez

From 2019 it is possible that Spain will have difficulties financing its public debt, which is definitely not only the official figure of 98.3% of GDP. Rajoy’s increase of this debt by €649 billion has been financed at very low interest rates, thanks to the ECB’s quantitative easing. On the other hand, Pedro Sánchez has announced substantial spending increases, which will inevitably increase debt in 2019.


Interest rates

Interest Rates As Indicators Of A Change Of Cycle

Miguel Navascués | For some months we have been looking with concern at the spread of interest rates of US 10 minus 2 year bonds as an indicator of an ever closer recession. Indeed, this indicator has been moving towards zero, and if it goes negative – which seems to be the trend- it would signal the threshold of a recession. But I don’t think it is such a precise indicator.


Argentina has officially asked for help from the IMF

Argentina Puts Itself Into The Hands Of The IMF

President of Argentina, Mauricio Macri, has not taken long to see the writing on the wall: he has officially asked for help from the IMF. On Monday, the peso/$ devalued 5%, which is a savage drop. Domestic and foreign equity have completely lost confidence in the economic governance and have fled terrified, with huge losses, given the peso’s accumulated depreciation.


The first EU budget at 27

Brexit and the European capitals market

Miguel Navascués | When the signs of an incipient slowdown in the European economy begin to multiply – the matching indicators suggest that industrial production slowed in 2018 – the case for reaching an agreement on Brexit and refocusing attention on unifying the capital markets becomes increasingly more powerful and urgent.


China_debt

Debt as the current biggest economic threat

The biggest economic threat today is not the interest rate, nor the exchange rates, nor the possible trade war fuelled by Trump: it’s the debt accumulated by countries across the world. This has increased 12% of GDP since the crisis, totalling 225% of global GDP. Starting with China, followed by Europe and ending up with the US, the threat from the current and future debt is terrifying.



The Treaty of Aachen: The two largest European economies barely differ

There Will Never Be Economic Union In Europe: Merkel Is Dodging Macron

It’s been some time since Europe has had a leader with such clear ideas as Emmanuel Macron, but Angela Merkel is not really happy about it. And that’s logical, because she has been calling all the shots. She has the power in Europe and so don’t expect even the slightest concession from her which is anything more than esthetic.