Articles by Ofelia Marín Lozano

About the Author

Ofelia Marín Lozano
Ofelia Marín-Lozano is as financial analyst and CEO at 1962 Capital SICAV. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics and is Professor of Global Business Environment and Financial Analysis in Madrid's Icade Business School.

Changes In The EuroStoxx50: Financial Sector Remains Significant, Consumer And Industrial Gained Importance

The Eurostoxx 50 will proceed once a year to change its composition on 24 September. This year there will be three new members of the index: Kering, Linde and Amadeus. The change of sectoral composition of the Eurostoxx 50 over the last two decades has been significant. Regulated companies have lost weight, and the major consumer and industrial multinational with global reach have gained in importance.

The Spanish financial sector is exceeding pre-crisis profits levels

Seven Years Of Reconversion Of The Spanish Financial Sector Bear Fruit

Ofelia Marín-Lozano | A decade after the beginning of the financial crisis, net profits in the Spanish banking sector continue the upward trend begun in 2012, but the profit per share is much less favourable. Given that the number of shares has increased (overall, more tan double the number in 2007), the net profit per share is less than a half pre-crisis levels.

The two Spanish big banks have announced changes in their top management

Spanish Financial Sector: Digitalisation Helps Profits

Ofelia Marín-Lozano | The Spanish financial sector has made an unprecedented effort to sanitise its books: since the beginning of the crisis in 2008, sanitising and provisions (amounting to some 260 billion euros) have reduced profit margins by two thirds, according to figures from the latest annual meeting of the financial sector. The role of digitilisation replacing branches was one of the recurrent themes of the meeting.


Dollar-euro exchange rate: 1,21 seems fairly normal

Ofelia Marín-Lozano |The variations in the exchange rate, over short periods of time like quarters, sales performances or results expressed in euros which can lead to simple, erroneous conclusions. This is even more true in the case of a European company with a greater weighting in markets where the dollar is the currency of reference. That is to say in any market outside, if not the Eurozone, then at least Europe.

Whether markets are expensive or cheap can be measured by dividend yield.

Dividends Are High And Increasing; Biggest Yields Found In The Insurance And Oil Sectors

One of the most objective measures for judging whether the stock market is expensive or cheap is the dividend yield. At the moment, the main global stock markets offer real returns which are superior to those of long-term sovereign bonds. For example, 34 of the 40 biggest French firms, those which make up the CAC40, have increased dividends over the last year.

Firms with a greater ROE gain more weight in stock markets

Stock Markets Are Not The Same As They Were A Century Ago

Comparing the average PER of a current stock market index with what it was historically is a simplistic approximation and can lead to wrong conclusions. In fact, we should take into account the differences in ROE. In the big stock market indices (S&P 500 in the US, Euro Stoxx 50 in the Eurozone) companies with a greater ROE have been gaining more weight.

normalisation of interest rates

The Convergence Of Interest Rates After Euro Crisis

The fact the German bund (as well as the French bond) continue to offer significant yield differentials compared with the US bond, shows us we have not yet returned to complete interest rate normality after the euro crisis. But, since Macron’s elections as the President of France, the doubts over the irreversibility of the euro are dissipating.

stock markets indices

The Risk Inherent In multiples On Stock Markets Indices

Making judgements on “whether a market is expensive or cheap,” using aggregates of prices and earnings, is a very risky simplification. To begin with, there are companies which don’t make money or even lose it, and quite a lot of it. Responsible, professional investors don’t buy  stock markets indices, they buy shares. They don’t invest “top-down” but rather “bottom-up”.

US economy growth

European Or US Stock Market?

From a conservative standpoint, given the current dividend, the European bourse offers a higher return than the US stock market. At current prices, and taking into account the dividend paid against 2016 results, the Euro Stoxx 50 offers a dividend yield of 3.4% versus the 2.0% offered by the S&P 500. If we take as a reference the dividends estimated against 2017 or 2018 results, the outlook doesn’t vary much, maintaining a differential close to 1.5% of annual return, in favour of the European bourse.

Bonds linked to inflation

Inflation-Linked Bonds Are Back Against A Backdrop Of Rising Prices

Ofelia Marín-Lozano | As inflation increases, the TIPS (treasury inflaction protected securities) are the asset which offer the best peformance, ahead of commodities and equities (….)much better than traditional bonds in the case of rising inflation, very similar in the case of a decline in activity and worse in the case of falling inflation.