Pablo Pardo | “In the 30s there was no econometrics and the economists could offer no advice on fiscal or monetary policy. In the last crisis the economists could offer ideas, say things like that, when interest rates are at zero, you have to use fiscal policy to stimulate the economy. This doesn’t mean that they listened to us. In Europe, for example, they pretty much ignored us,” explains William Nordhaus, Nobel laureate for economics in 2018.
Articles by Pablo Pardo
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Pablo Pardo (Washington) | Although the world’s prime economic power has grown for 114 consecutive months, Wall Street has spent the whole year in a saw teeth configuration. If stock market uncertainty was not enough, now fixed incomes have joined the chorus of anxiety. Since the summer, the yield curve has been flattening, in what appears to be the clearest sign of a recession in sight.
Pablo Pardo | The US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) measures recessions and expansions. According to this organization, the US emerged from the last recession in June 2009. If it lasts until May next year, it will become the longest expansionary cycle, breaking the record for expansion between 1991 and 2001.
When Madeleine Albright retired from the front line of politics in politics, she founded, first, an equity fund and then an equity management company and a consultant, ASG, which supports the internationalisation of US firms. But Albright has never really left the public sphere. Now she returns, at the age of 81, with a book: “Fascism: A Threat”.
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | In global political and journalistic mythology, the word “impeachment” is loaded with meaning. In the city of Washington, where this curious political figure takes place, its importance is much less. In practice, the impeachment is no more than a vote of “no confidence” in the US President by the House of Representatives.
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | In 2008 they hardly demanded anything of someone seeking a mortgage. They were the famous Ninja credits (‘No Income, No Job, No Assets’). Today, in the US, to sign a mortgage requires the buyer to out his signature at least 33 times, plus 6 or 7 more in which he must put his initials in boxes esecially designed for them. It is only one of the changes experiences in the world’s superpower since Lehman Brothers went backrupt a decade ago.
On the few occasions the Fed’s former chairman Ben Bernanke speaks in public, which makes him feel physically sick- , he resorts to metaphors. It is what he did in May when he declared that “in 2020 the coyote is going to leap off the precipice and is going to look down”. Bernanke was referring to Wile E.Coyote, the coyote in the Roadrunner, a series of Warner cartoons which ran in the 50s and 60s.
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | The first economy in the world has been creating net employment without interruption for seven years and eight months. For now everything indicates it will continue to do so. And best of all: there is no wage inflation. In other words, it is impossible to understand what is happening in the US, although that does not prevent various theories being advanced to explain the situation.
The mythical chain of toy stores Toys “R” Us is closing, reflecting not only the power of Amazon in the US retail sector, but also the end of the historic “mall” and the impact of monetary normalisation.
Peter Navarro, Wilbur Ross and Robert Lightizer: these are the three new horsemen of the Apocalypse. At least for the majority of US businessmen and investors. They appear to have constituted the core of Donald Trump’s team of economic advisors.