On the few occasions the Fed’s former chairman Ben Bernanke speaks in public, which makes him feel physically sick- , he resorts to metaphors. It is what he did in May when he declared that “in 2020 the coyote is going to leap off the precipice and is going to look down”. Bernanke was referring to Wile E.Coyote, the coyote in the Roadrunner, a series of Warner cartoons which ran in the 50s and 60s.
Articles by Pablo Pardo
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Pablo Pardo (Washington) | The first economy in the world has been creating net employment without interruption for seven years and eight months. For now everything indicates it will continue to do so. And best of all: there is no wage inflation. In other words, it is impossible to understand what is happening in the US, although that does not prevent various theories being advanced to explain the situation.
The mythical chain of toy stores Toys “R” Us is closing, reflecting not only the power of Amazon in the US retail sector, but also the end of the historic “mall” and the impact of monetary normalisation.
Peter Navarro, Wilbur Ross and Robert Lightizer: these are the three new horsemen of the Apocalypse. At least for the majority of US businessmen and investors. They appear to have constituted the core of Donald Trump’s team of economic advisors.
“If we analyse the data from the last 25 years, there is very little inflation. Underlying inflation in the US has never really fallen below 1% which means that the secular dynamism in the labour market is reducing inflation, via technology and globalisation,” explains Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JP Morgan.
“I am “the king of debt”. That was very grandiose for me as a businessman, but it’s bad for the US. I made a fortune with debt, I will sort out the US”. This is the kind of tweet which would ruin anyone’s political career, with the exception of one person: Donald Trump.
2018 may be the year of the infrastructures. Perhaps it won’t be the best or the most efficient plan which emerges. But what’s clear is that something has to be approved which allows Donald Trump to cut the ribbons on motorways, bridges and other more or less large structures.
Mohamed El-Erian, currently chief economist with German insurance group Allianz, and touted as a possible sucessor to Stanley Fischer, believes that monetary policy cannot do any more. And that the governments of the democratic countries have not been capable of coordinating economic policies which solve the problems created by the last crisis.
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | Why has the US continued to pump “unconventional” oil to such an extent that it seems almost certain that this will be the year when it beats its production record? It is also an example of the extent of the US economy’s madness with the Federal Reserve’s expansive monetary policy over the last 10 years.
Nobody really knows why volatility has disappeared. In theory, there are more than enough reasons for the market to be nervous, and for investors to take advantage of this to obtain higher returns.