“If we analyse the data from the last 25 years, there is very little inflation. Underlying inflation in the US has never really fallen below 1% which means that the secular dynamism in the labour market is reducing inflation, via technology and globalisation,” explains Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JP Morgan.
Articles by Pablo Pardo
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“I am “the king of debt”. That was very grandiose for me as a businessman, but it’s bad for the US. I made a fortune with debt, I will sort out the US”. This is the kind of tweet which would ruin anyone’s political career, with the exception of one person: Donald Trump.
2018 may be the year of the infrastructures. Perhaps it won’t be the best or the most efficient plan which emerges. But what’s clear is that something has to be approved which allows Donald Trump to cut the ribbons on motorways, bridges and other more or less large structures.
Mohamed El-Erian, currently chief economist with German insurance group Allianz, and touted as a possible sucessor to Stanley Fischer, believes that monetary policy cannot do any more. And that the governments of the democratic countries have not been capable of coordinating economic policies which solve the problems created by the last crisis.
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | Why has the US continued to pump “unconventional” oil to such an extent that it seems almost certain that this will be the year when it beats its production record? It is also an example of the extent of the US economy’s madness with the Federal Reserve’s expansive monetary policy over the last 10 years.
Nobody really knows why volatility has disappeared. In theory, there are more than enough reasons for the market to be nervous, and for investors to take advantage of this to obtain higher returns.
The FAANG, an acronym for Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google, are the five companies really moving the US market. As a matter of fact, it is entirely dominated by Apple. And this firm’s expectations are what drives its share price.
The Laffer curve, named after Arthur Laffer, demonstrates, in a conceptual and educational way, that from a certain level of tax onwards, revenues fall because people don’t have any incentive to work. And the Supply Economy originated from this.
Despite the chaos of the Trump administration, prices have reached the Fed’s target. The announced “tapering” is complicated because if the central bank is not careful rates could shoot up more than necessary.
Wall Street’s market is celebrating eight years of uninterrupted rises. The PER of the SP500 was 10.9 on March 9th 2009, and it is now 19.8, with the historic average at 15.6.