Signs of a future increase in inflation are becoming increasingly visible. Natixis IM explains some of these global clues. First it is US long-term inflation outlook, which is currently situated around 2-3% and trending clearly higher.
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Italy’s budget deficit of – 2.4% of GDP for the period 2019/2021 presented by the government increased the debt premium of 50bp to 280 bp and a 4% fall in the FTSE-MIB.This rise in the risk premium impacts negatively on the Italian banks in fundamentally three ways.
The government of India took control of Infrastructure Leasing & Financials Services (IL&FS) last week in order to ensure its liquidity and solvency as well as to preserve stability in the financial system. For analysts at Julius Baer, “this should alleviate concerns on the money, debt and capital markets but does not equate to a bail out.”
On Sunday 7 October, all Brazilians between the ages of 18 and 70 are being called to the polls to elect their next President .”This is an important election because the future administration will have the responsibility to tackle Brazil’s growing fiscal imbalances, and this will require challenging structural reforms”, analysts at AXA IM say.
Cepsa’s single shareholder, Mubadala (Abu Dhabi Sovereign Fund), expects to raise up to 2.019 billion euros for the capital of the oil company put up for sale, which implies a value for the company in the range of 7.010 – 8.085 billion euros (more than 11.2 billion euros if the debt is included).
There is news which has global resonance and influence because its importance. Such is the case with the increase in the minimum wages of Amazon employees by around 2$ to 15$/hour (a bit more than 13 euros). The measure will enter into effect on 1 November. According to Alphavalue´s analysts, “this not only blocks the competition (Walmart), but also confirms the shortage of manpower in the US”.
The Conversation | NAFTA is out but the United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement (USMCA) is in. But how different is USMCA from NAFTA? Who loses and who wins?via
The Spanish stock market regulator (CNMV) has confirmed its authorisation for the bid of Minor Hotels for the 53.75% of the capital which it still does not control in NH Hoteles (NHH), fixing the purchase price at 6.3 euros per share and valueing the Spanish hotel company at some 2.5 billion euros. Minor now has a period of five working days to disseminate the offer.
The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to above 3.20%, the highest level in more than seven years. As commented by Jeroen Blockland from Robeco, “few investors anticipated that US yields would rise to these levels and this is currently causing a bit of volatility”.
In relation to the fiscal deficit, the IMF has suggested to the Government of Pedro Sánchez that it calculates “realistically”the incomes it expects to collect from tax increases, to avoid a sharp increase in the deficit. The organisation has also lowered its forecast for GDP growth in Spain in 2018 from 2.8% to 2.7%. For 2019 the IMF expects GDP to grow by 2.2%, in line with its previous forecast.