Spanish real estate still has growth to deliver. Regardless of global economic slowdown, Brexit or trade tensions, we think the country’s competitive labour market should support one of the highest economic growth rates in Europe. Spanish GDP should grow at 1.7% pa over the next three years vs 1.1% in the Euro area, according to BofA economists.
Morgan Stanley’s Equity Analyst Alvaro Serrano had raised his recommendation of Spanish Banco Sabadell (SAB) to Overweight (OW) in May with the expectation that NPA sales, improvement in Britain’s TSB and a capital near 12% CET1 would improve the visibility of benefits from 2020.
Stephen Chan (Fair Observer) | This is a historic moment for what is now the United Kingdom. What the country will look like after 10 years is up for debate.
A new flat tax in the US, the decline of the US dollar due to the greater influence of Asian economies… All these highly improbable but high economic impact events are called grey swans. The Spanish business association Círculo de Empresarios has put together some of the most relevant for 2020.
BofA | Offices across Europe are enjoying a resurgence, owing to: i) rising property prices as prosperity and hence urbanisation increase in cities, ii) 2.6x faster growth in office-related jobs vs total employment across Europe as the economy becomes more service-oriented (70% of GDP); iii) office vacancy in the central business districts of Madrid, Barcelona and Paris standing 40% below the long-term average, resulting in a tighter supply/demand balance and driving up rents.
Alejandro Arevalo (Jupiter AM) | Capitalising on the economic and political diversity available within EM debt will be key to riding the economic slowdown in 2020.
Monex Europe | The euro’s fortunes turned sour in 2019 despite the year starting with a positive outlook.
BBVA Research | At the end of the year, the Spanish economy could register three quarters in a row of 0.4% growth t / t, below the growth observed since the beginning of the recovery (0.7% t / t, on average). In this context there is a stabilization of job creation, a volatile composition of demand and low inflation.
Alphavalue | We have lowered the EPS estimates for Repsol (2019 by – 12.2% and 2020 by – 7.63%) after incorporating the results of the last quarter and lower expectations of gas prices in the US.
Yu Hairong, Wu Hongyuran, Huo Kan, Cheng Siwei and Han Wei (Caixin) | Where is the Chinese economy heading and how will policymakers react? As the new year approaches, debate over the outlook of the world’s second-largest economy is heating up, and all eyes are searching for clues to the next policy steps.