Carax Alphavalue |After earning the unhappy reputation of being the protagonist in Spain’s biggest ever bankruptcy case, engineering and renewable energy company Abengoa could be worth taking another look as a summer investment bet – albeit a high risk one.
Analysts at Julius Baer think it is “comforting” to see that the bond market is efficient. In other words, they say that for German bond investors it is basically the same whether they invest in negative- yielding German Bunds or buy US bonds and pay for the hedging of the currency risk.
Iberdrola’s stock had a good performance this year despite the difficult conditions faced by the group in two of its main markets (the UK and Spain). The negative effect was mainly on the generation and supply side as earnings in this segment decreased by 32%: the UK’s earnings contracted by 75% and the Spanish by 19%. As pointed by Carax- Alphavalue “this was due to lower plant operations (load factor) with contracting margins added to low hydro production and higher transmission costs
Norbolsa | We consider the acquisition just announced by Vidrala in Portugal as attractive: a factory with high margins and with potential synergies given its proximity to Gallo; a purchase made at attractive prices and which will be immeditely EPS accretive.
AlphaValue’s experts are worried about the lack of stocks in the Stoxx600 universe that match the requirement of “post Uber” business models: ones where capital intensity is light, where green is more than a buzzword and where businesses can bank on forever free money. As they comment “somehow, the revamped Siemens fits the bill”. Why?
The positive dynamic behind Spanish stocks is a fact. Carax- Alphavalue’s analysts have repeatedly stressed it and indeed have selected to be, for most of H1, over-weighted in Spain in their Portfolio, a selection of stocks for a dynamic return.
Year 2017 will bring a change in trend for Técnicas Reunidas, after two years of sharp declines in investment in the petrochemical sector (-43% in 2015 and -27% in 2016e) as a result of the drop in oil prices. According to ACF’s analysts this hypothesis is supported by forecasts for there being an equilibrium between supply and demand for oil by mid-2017, which should reactivate investment in the sector.
Miquel y Costas has known how to create a niche for itself amongst the big global producers, taking advantage of the fact it is historically well-positioned in its sector (paper for the tobacco industry), with very few competitors and high entry barriers.
Ezentis ended 2016 with an order book worth €848.4 million and a ratio of 2.8x sales. This figure, combined with the fact the bulk of the order book is recent (79% of the contracts awarded in 2016), guarantee a large part of the group’s future results, as well as reducing their volatility.
Eight months ago Carax-Alphavalue held the view that Gamesa was fully priced ahead of it falling into the Siemens bag. This opinion proved correct only for the following two months. Another six months on and the Spanish wind-turbine manufacturer is looking decidedly expensive at €21.5, even though they have upgraded their target price on the back of a strong 2016 delivery.