equity reports


Gamesa

Gamesa’s timely merger

Eight months ago Carax-Alphavalue held the view that Gamesa was fully priced ahead of it falling into the Siemens bag. This opinion proved correct only for the following two months. Another six months on and the Spanish wind-turbine manufacturer is looking decidedly expensive at €21.5, even though they have upgraded their target price on the back of a strong 2016 delivery.



Axiare performance

Spanish Small & Midcaps: Axiare

José Benito de Vega | Axiare has outperformed the other listed Socimis, as well as the IBEX-35 since it made its market debut in July 2014. The rise in the company’s NAV per share has reflected this upbeat trend, increasing over 30% in three years.



Deutsche Bank: Wait (sell, 16% Downside)

The company is a great business that can raise €8bn to essentially hand over the proceeds to the US courts without destroying its market cap (c.-10% on the news). “Hats off then to Mr Cryan, the CEO of Deutsche Bank, for keeping the benefits of the doubt for more than a year into the job”, says Carax- Alphavalue’s analysts.





Deutsche Boerse

Deutsche Boerse, A Merger That Need Not Happen

Since the DB /LSE merger was announced (a year ago officially), it has been more beneficial to LSE shareholders than to DB’s, with a valuation gap (29x for LSE vs. 18x for DB) that has never closed. Respective shares have continued to trade in an uncorrelated way suggesting that not only the deal is not consummated but that the GBP/Brexit tango cannot be ignored.