Ezentis ended 2016 with an order book worth €848.4 million and a ratio of 2.8x sales. This figure, combined with the fact the bulk of the order book is recent (79% of the contracts awarded in 2016), guarantee a large part of the group’s future results, as well as reducing their volatility.
Eight months ago Carax-Alphavalue held the view that Gamesa was fully priced ahead of it falling into the Siemens bag. This opinion proved correct only for the following two months. Another six months on and the Spanish wind-turbine manufacturer is looking decidedly expensive at €21.5, even though they have upgraded their target price on the back of a strong 2016 delivery.
OHL will more than quadruple its Ebitda to 1.009 billion euros in 2017, increasing sales by 30% to 5.027 billion from a year earlier, according to estimates prepared by the company for its Investor Day and sent to the Stock Market Regulator (CNMV).
José Benito de Vega | Axiare has outperformed the other listed Socimis, as well as the IBEX-35 since it made its market debut in July 2014. The rise in the company’s NAV per share has reflected this upbeat trend, increasing over 30% in three years.
CIE Automotive ended 2016 eliminating any doubts on its capacity to meet the objectives in its 2016/2020 Strategic Plan. In fact, it has brought forward its target of doubling Attributable Net Profit by one year to 2019.
The company is a great business that can raise €8bn to essentially hand over the proceeds to the US courts without destroying its market cap (c.-10% on the news). “Hats off then to Mr Cryan, the CEO of Deutsche Bank, for keeping the benefits of the doubt for more than a year into the job”, says Carax- Alphavalue’s analysts.
The European Commission has initiated proceedings against Spain for the limits it imposes on direct or indirect participation in Red Eléctrica (REE) and Enagás and for restricting voting rights. Brussels could take Spain to the European Court of Justice if the Spanish government’s response is not convincing and there could be a fine in the end.
In equity terms, Frexit risk would leave financial entities having to fuel the economy while depositors would sell francs and buy euros. Obviously the loss in the lending margin would be a huge multiple of the fear spread.
Behavioural finance theory tells us that markets are susceptible to short term emotional moves and politics can be part of that. For example, the current narrative of isolationism and tariff barriers impacting EM exporters as strategists and analysts try and pull out economic effects from the potential policies of the new US administration.
Since the DB /LSE merger was announced (a year ago officially), it has been more beneficial to LSE shareholders than to DB’s, with a valuation gap (29x for LSE vs. 18x for DB) that has never closed. Respective shares have continued to trade in an uncorrelated way suggesting that not only the deal is not consummated but that the GBP/Brexit tango cannot be ignored.