Markets

oil barrels

Oil: Will the supply cuts become a chicken game?

Julius Baer Research | Oil’s push above USD 58 per barrel on the first trading day of the year seemingly only was a temporary burst of energy. The market’s focus is on quota compliance as the oil producers must now walk the talk of supply cuts. We remain sceptical that the supply deal will have a material impact, swiftly erase surplus supplies and provide lasting support to prices.



German equities performance

2016: Closing the Book on a Difficult Year for Cash Equity Volumes

UBS | Last year was a challenging one for the cash equity exchanges. LSE was the only exchange that reported a year-on-year increase to volumes (+3.5%). The other exchanges experienced volume declines of 15-20% for DB1, Euro next and Borsa Italiana and a 35% decline at BME.


Spanish stocks

Spanish Stock Exchange Trading In 2016 Decreased By 32% To €652.9Bn

The Spanish equities market saw a turnover of €652.907 billion in 2016, a decline of 32.1% from a year earlier. The fall is in line with the general decrease in volumes registered in stock markets across the world. In December, trading volumes fell 27.5% to €48.987 billion from a year earlier.


fund flows in 2016

Follow The Fund flows in 2016: QE in the driving seat

BoAML | QE drove fund flows in 2016, but the past two months was all about reversing this trend. All-in-all, commodities, EM debt and IG were the winners; equities and HY the losers. For example, last week’s flows HG: +$1.6bn / HY: +$1.1bn / Equities: -$40mn


Stock markets

Markets Start Waivering Ahead Of Bad News In The Pipeline

In the aftermath of Mr Trump’s victory, stock markets surged, building on promises of strong stimuli and sizeable tax breaks. As time goes on, they are reappraising the short-term outlook, since fundamental changes may take more than one year to materialise. No wonder investors are turning cautious, cashing in on early gains.


Bonds and pricing

A Price Earnings-Ratio Of 15.5 For 2017 And Counting

CaraxAlphavalue | We held the view a year ago that 2016 would be difficult. It turned out to be wrong from summer 2016. Still, we repeatedly mentioned that the 2016 earnings delivery would not be as strong as anticipated from a recovery year after a disastrous 2015. Price earnings ratio ambitions started 2016 with a +12% hope. By early 2017, we are down to 7.5% on our coverage (469 stocks with a combined market cap of about €9tn).


stocks exchange

The First Week Of A New Year, Traditionally Volatile In Market Indices

The first week of a new year is traditionally volatile, with a huge dispersion in the performance of the market indices. This can be seen clearly in the first 5 sessions of the Ibex 35 over the last few years: 2010 + 1.87 % ; 2011 – 3.03 % ; 2012 – 3.24 % ; 2013 + 3.50 % ; 2014 + 3.4 % ; 2015 – 1.6 % and in 2016 – 6.65 %. Independently of this very short-term positioning, Bankinter believes that 2017 will be the year for equities.


iberdrolaTC

Iberdrola: addressing latest questions from investors

UBS | Based on our latest conversations with investors, the following three questions emerged on Iberdrola: Could we see EPS growth upgrades following the strategic update on Feb-2017? Could renewables growth plans in the US be at risk? And, Is the company likely to pursue inorganic growth as suggested by recent press articles?


REE-grids

Refreshing Our Thoughts on REE: More Domestic Energy Policy Risk

UBS | REE delivered an impressive annual total return of over 20% in the past 5 years. This was driven by EPS growth, supportive regulation and above all, falling sovereign bond yields. The trend however was halted this year as bond yields recovered and yield expansion impacted the stock – a risk which continues to keep us cautious on REE, and on regulated names in general.