Top Stories

Markets

No Picture

Markets 10th January 2015

M&A likely to remain a feature of 2015

ZURICH | UBS analysts | In addition to setting out our thoughts by sub-sector (capex, mobile devices, semis), we outline themes and stock specific catalysts for 2015, including a review of potential M&A and possible hikes in cash returns. We also highlight each stock’s investment drivers (positive and negative) through 2015. In general we see another robust year for semi capex, softer telecom capex (but stable vendor revenue), ongoing strong growth in low end smart-phones, a medium-term inventory correction in analog semis (with solid underlying trends), and the continuing emergence of mobile payments.

china housing

Markets 22nd December 2014

In-depth: China desperate at cooling down the property bubble

Iris Mir | China’s real state market is cooling down. Rampant investment in the past few years has caused lingering oversupply and a drop in investment prices. Property developers suffer a very risky lack of liquidity and limited access to credit that prevents them from being able to repay previous loans. China’s real state sector represents a 15% of the national GDP; and it plays a crucial role in other sectors. The government is very keen on lending all the necessary support to maintain the speculative frenzy. But analysts believe that recent measures will not solve the structural problems of the housing market.

dinero colchon recurso TC

Markets 20th December 2014

What if QE operates on the supply side and keeps prices low?

WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Do you want a Who’s Who of the Republican talking heads? If so, go to this list. Those are the luminaries that asked the Federal Reserve not to go ahead with the Quantitative Easing in 2010, for fear of inflation and currency debasement. Four year later, inflation is nowhere to be seen, and, according to the IMF, the US dollar has strengthened its role in the monetary system. 

No Picture

Markets 17th December 2014

How would broader ECB QE impact the UK?

LONDON | UBS analysts | UBS expects the ECB to widen its asset purchase programme to include corporate, parastatal and sovereign bonds on 5 March 2015. Our base case is for €1 trillion of sovereign bond purchases to be undertaken over a two-year time horizon. In this note, we examine how a broadening of the ECB’s QE programme is likely to impact the UK economy and sterling-denominated asset classes.

LTRO

Markets 15th December 2014

The ECB easing fails to fly

MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | Just cast a look at the dismal performance of the medium-term targets of LTRO liquidity tenders, that amount to barely a fifth of the amount pumped in three years ago. 

No Picture

Markets 12th December 2014

M&A likely to remain a feature of 2015

ZURICH | UBS analysts | In addition to setting out our thoughts by sub-sector (capex, mobile devices, semis), we outline themes and stock specific catalysts for 2015, including a review of potential M&A and possible hikes in cash returns. We also highlight each stock’s investment drivers (positive and negative) through 2015. In general we see another robust year for semi capex, softer telecom capex (but stable vendor revenue), ongoing strong growth in low end smart-phones, a medium-term inventory correction in analog semis (with solid underlying trends), and the continuing emergence of mobile payments. 

Caja RegistradoraTC

Markets 11th December 2014

TLTRO 2: Poor results highlight ECB’s increasingly large to do list

MADRID | The Corner | As expected, the impact of the ECB’s second TLTRO, aimed at spurring credit to SMEs, was smaller than expected. Eurozone banks asked for €129.8 billion ($161.29 billion) in four-year loans, more than the nearly €83 billion provided in the previous offer in mid-September, but below the €150 billion expected by market watchers. Some believe this will increase pressure on Frankfurt to launch broadened QE on 22 January, the scheduled date for the next ECB meeting.

 

tltro

Markets 10th December 2014

December TLTRO: A window on the ECB’s future actions

By Giuseppe Maraffino (Barclays) | On Thursday, December 11, the ECB will carry out its second TLTRO. The allotment results will be out at about 10:15 London time. The size of the new liquidity injected will be clear on the settlement of the operation, on Wednesday, 17 December, which is also the settlement day of next week’s MRO and of the weekly 3y LTRO repayment. However, the announcement on Friday, December 12, of next week’s 3y LTRO repayment will provide some insights on the new liquidity injected.

TLTRO 18.09.2014 1

Markets 9th December 2014

Next TLTRO may reach €160 billion

MADRID | The Corner | All markets eyes are set on the ECB’s second offer of cheap four-year loans (TLTRO), which will take place next Thursday and are aimed to revive the eurozone’s battered economy and try to boost lending to SMEs. As a matter of fact, this second round will be important as any decision about launching a QE program will be influenced by how the banks respond to Thursday’s liquidity open bar.