MADRID | By Francisco López | The ECB’s measures since June have been oriented to fight the ghost of deflation, increasing the Eurozone’s economic activity and, in an indirect manner, managing the euro’s depreciation. For the moment Mr Draghi has failed in the first two goals, although he has succeeded in the third one. The euro is plummeting –which is good news.
LONDON | The Corner | Emerging market equities no longer hold the attractions they did earlier in the year, according to Barclays analysts. They had previously recommended an overweight stance and now they’re cutting to neutral. In the same time they are raising exposure to Japan.
MADRID | By Francisco López | Economic confidence dropped again in September to mid-2009 levels highlighting a worsening of the economic malaise in the Eurozone (EZ). The PMI Index fell 1.1 points to 85 points, well below the long term average (100points).
MADRID | By Francisco López | Up to this point, investors had scarcely listened to economists’ warnings about world economic stagnation, but in the last number of days the situation has changed as commodities’ prices dropped, with debt and equity markets beginning to exert some pressure.
MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | After successive quarters of economic expansion, increased demand and rises in industrial production which had triggered widespread optimism, the economic recovery has lost momentum in the Eurozone, halting abruptly in Q2. That was the main message conveyed on Monday by Mario Draghi at the European Parliament. Weak credit growth may prove an obstacle to recovery, and the continued lag in this sector is likely to persist for the rest of this year, with gradual increases in lending expected in 2015 and 2016.
MADRID | The Corner | Supply and demand conditions for Eurozone credit generation are improving – this is clearly reflected in the ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey – but the way towards a full normalisation is still long. We believe that reduced bank funding costs might support, but will not aggressively accelerate, the recovery in credit growth.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | The first TLTRO auction will not make history for its significance. Eurozone banks only asked for €82.6 billion, from which €14.147 million will go to Spanish entities (Santander €3bn; Caixabank €3bn; Popular 2.847 bn ; Bankia 2.7bn and BBVA 2.6bn), much less than the expected 100-150 billion, was firstly interpreted as a poor credit demand, although a second reading shows that lenders were right to be cautions.
MADRID | The Corner | European stocks climbed as investors waiting for the Fed’s FOMC decision and Scottish referendum outcome began to take positions again. However, analysts say market behaviour will be not easy to predict due to today´s quadruple witching hour. Western markets, both bonds and stocks, have a much simpler scenario to assess and may turn to macro and companies’ fundamentals.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | As expected, ECB’s September TLTRO will not make big headlines. 255 European banks borrowed €82.6bn of liquidity below consensus estimate of €100-150bn. Although the Frankfurt-based institution doesn’t provide a geographical breakdown, banks in Italy and Spain were among the leading borrowers (40% of the total) to trim funding costs. Spanish entities are thought to have asked half of those €30bn at their disposal, although some entities “are not willing to disclose how much they asked for,” an ECB source confirmed to The Corner.
MADRID | The Corner | FOMC’s conclusions (the Fed is renewing its pledge on low rates) meaning little changes to the current rates scenario, the spotlight has shifted to the Scottish independence referendum (final results to be released around 5:30-6:30 GMT on Friday), which is presumably going to have an impact on European financial markets today. Also the ECB is publishing the results of its much-awaited first TLTRO operation today. It’s the most important cheap cash offer from the central lender since the beginning of the economic crisis which has been very popular in Spain and Italy. Spanish banks will aim for €30bn, Economy Minister said on Wednesday.