After being arrested by Japanese authorities on Monday for alleged fiscal fraud, Carlos Ghosn, Chairman of Nissan and CEO of Renault has been temporarily suspended at the head of the company and remains chairman “temporarily incapacitated”. The greater integration of the alliance between Nissan, Renault and Mitsubishi is now left in the air. Furthermore, it generates uncertainty in relation to the corporate governance practices of the alliance.
Esty Dwek (Natixis IM) | The Italian budget standoff comes under scrutiny again this week, as the European Commission could start its ‘excessive deficit procedure’ on Wednesday, since Italy hasn’t changed its 2.4% budget deficit and 1.5% growth forecasts for 2019.
DWS | Sometimes, it is better to remain silent than to speak up and remove all doubt about your ignorance. Having been inundated by comments on what to make of the latest twist in the Brexit drama, however, we too feel compelled to add our bit. Amidst all the recent turbulence, we believe three conclusions can already be drawn, none of them particularly comfortable for British financial markets.
Santander | In terms of stock market behavior, the Spanish market has lost the last decade. The Ibex35 today trades 2% below its level of 2008 and the PSI20 does it 25% below (a behavior even more negative than that of the Italian market, which has fallen by 11% in this period), in a clear contrast with the revaluation of 50% of the EuroStoxx in this period and 237% of the S&P500.
By David F. Lafferty (Natixis) | Over the last few months, we have written, spoken, and tweeted incessantly about the coming headwinds to both the global economy and the capital markets. In July we noted that despite the current macroeconomic momentum, there are many factors that are likely to hamper growth by the time we get to late 2019 or 2020. These include tighter monetary policy that will actually begin to pinch growth, fading tax-cut and fiscal stimulus (especially if the Democrats take the US House of Representatives in the midterm elections), continued trade and export headwinds, a Brexit supply-shock to the UK and EU, and so on.
BBVA is a well-managed bank, but with a geographical exposure that is currently very negative. The financial entity’s shares have risen in a roller coast since the new President of Brazil, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, announced and then retracted his party’s plan to limit bank commissions.
Between September and October, Siemens Gamesa has registered sales of 9.122 billion, with an Ebit pre PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) costs of integration and re-structuring of 693 million and an Ebit margin of 7.6%. Siemens Gamesa is closing its first financial year since the merger.
The president elect of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, confirmed the cancellation of the construction works for the airport of Mexico. This is the result of the binding referendum and means the end of a project with a budget of €10 bn, of which 20% has been completed. The president’s alternative proposal is to enlarge the the military airport Santa Lucia (terminal for international flights) and modernise the old airport of Benito Juárez in the centre of Mexico City (for domestic traffic).
Telefonica posted a profit of €2,721 M in the first nine months of the year, which represents an improvement of 11.6% compared to the same period a year ago.Net debt reduced for the sixth consecutive quarter and stood at €42,636m at the end of September. This fall represents a reduction of nearly 10% year-on-year.
Banco Santander increased attributable profit during the first nine months of 2018 by 13% to €5,742 million (+28% in constant euros), as strong growth in revenues in several markets, combined with improvements in credit quality, more than offset the impact of exchange rate depreciation against the euro in certain currencies, including the Argentine peso. Profit before tax for the period was €11,230 million–up 10 % (+23% in constant euros).