MADRID | The Corner | In spite of, or maybe, thanks to the so-called Spailout (2012), Spain is today one of Europe’s driving forces. The International Monetary Fund’s estimates on global economy point to the country as the outperformer of the Eurozone for the first time in six years. Its GDP would grow by 2% this year and 1.8% in 2016.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | According to Wolfgang Münchau, Thursday will be a decisive day for the ECB. It will be decisive for the raised expectations, not because we are going to see a QE’s announcement without restrictions.
PARIS | By Francesco Saraceno | I think it is important to clarify once more that QE and the OMT (welcome to the wonderful world of EU acronyms) are not the same thing. If Mario Draghi manages to rally the Governing Council behind him, QE will consist of a vast program of sovereign bond purchases, in order to try to lift the European economy out of deflation. A European version in short, of what was done three years ago by the Fed and other major central banks in the world.
BRUSSELS | By Alexandre Mato | Having failed to secure sufficient funding from Member States at the last EU Summit, this could be the first real economic victory in the months since the new Commission was formed. Flexibility is the new buzzword in Brussels, with calls growing for a “smarter application of the Stability and Growth Pact, Commissioner Moscovici announced.
MADRID | By Álex García.
BRISTOL | Guest post by Tony Yates (Long and Variable) | That’s what George Osborne’s twitter feed would have you believe. And it was echoed by Andrew Sentance. Statements like these are at odds with modern monetary macro, and they are pretty irresponsible.
LONDON | Barclays analysts | We believe this week’s data on inflation and economic activity have provided more arguments to step up ECB’s asset purchase programmes by including EGBs on 22 January, which is our baseline scenario. Inflation entered negative territory in December and is likely to stay negative for a few months before a weaker euro improves the inflation and growth outlook.
ATHENS | By Nick Malkoutzis | Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has a habit of defending his government by saying that his aim is to make Greece “a normal European country.” Whatever he may mean by this and however genuine he may be in wanting Greece to recover from its long crisis, this is an infuriatingly patronising comment. Intentionally or not, it aligns Greece’s prime minister with all the cranks in Europe and Greece’s misinformed critics beyond who view the country as some kind of basket case.
BRUSSELS | By Jacobo de Regoyos | The previous five years of Jean-Claude Juncker’s reign were suddenly thrown into flux following the publication of hundreds of secret documents regarding agreements between the Grand Duchy of Luxemburg-during his premiership- and over 340 multinationals. In essence, this amounted to the facilitation of tailor-made fiscal schemes that allow the payment of a corporate tax close to 1% instead of the stipulated 29%.
MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | Central bankers would be ill-advised to cave in to pressure from the markets. Yet, the ECB can hardly resist the urgent need to implement a fully-fledged QE programme involving sovereigns. Anything less could end-up sparking a period of vicious turmoil as Syriza seems poised to win the upcoming elections in Greece and the oil market continues to tumble into utter disarray. Such a grim outlook requires drastic action. Would it solve all the current problems? There are plenty of reasons to doubt it.