In this article, published by the magazine from IEAF , economists Carlos Contreras y Álvaro Contreras question whether the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) carried out by the European Central Bank (ECB) generates short-run market anomalies in European sovereign-linked credit and bond markets.
Julius Baer | Although the UK will most likely officially exit the EU tomorrow, this exit will mostly be formal. The withdrawal agreement only defines the terms of divorce, limiting immediate disruptions, but says little about the future trade relationship between the UK and EU. The so-called ‘Political Declaration’, a 26- page sketch of the future trade relationship alongside the with- drawal agreement, but not legally binding, defines a so-called ‘transition’ or ‘implementation’ period from the date of Brexit until the end of 2020.
The new European Banking Authority (EBA) proposal will be analysed and discussed by the parties involved up until April 30, with a public discussion session on February 21. It will give banks more room for manoeuvre in the calculation of their projections. That said, the agency has insisted standards will have to remain high. The banks will have to continue detailing capital requirements, major risk factors or exposure data.
CaixaBank Research | The weakness of the industrial sector, which we have recently analysed, is one of the major factors behind the slowdown in the global economy and, in particular, that of the euro area. However, the resilience exhibited by the services sector, which accounts for the bulk of economic activity,continues to drive growth and gives continuity to the expansion. But just how resilient has the services sector really proven to be? Is there a risk of contagion from industrial weakness?
Euro area governments could increase tax revenue by 3% of GDP on average by improving their value-added-tax systems, creating fiscal space for heavily indebted countries such as Greece, Italy and Spain, and boosting growth by reducing tax distortions.
Manuel Moreno Capa | As soon as Boris Johnson swept to victory in the UK general election of last December 12, he made two decisions that have not been welcomed by the City of London: the first, to reduce the transitional period of Brexit to one year (how naive he is if he thinks his tough stance will soften the positions already taken by Brussels); the second, to appoint a new Governor of the Bank of England not much liked by the markets.
Antoinette Ismail (European Views) | Net demand for loans to businesses in the Eurozone area reached their lowest level in six years at the end of 2019, that’s according to the latest Euro Area Bank Lending Survey (BLS) from the European Central Bank (ECB). It is the first time a decrease in demand for enterprise loans has been recorded since the fourth quarter of 2013.
The ECB meeting this week should be a non-event, but risks are for a hawkish surprise in tone. We will be all ears on two elements: the timeline and the motivation for the review that starts this week and finishes before the end of 2020.
Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, Julius Baer) | The outline of the EU Green Deal, was announced yesterday with an overwhelming price tag underpinning its ambitions.The outline is comprehensive but vague, and the impact is elusive to date. Market forces continue to drive the transition.
(European Views) | The European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services Thierry Breton has rejected claims that relying on European firms in the ongoing 5G network roll-out would cause substantial delays, commenting on rising tensions in Germany over the possible risks posed by Chinese firm Huawei Technologies.