BoAML | The risks of a no deal Brexit have risen in our view. No deal is not our base case, but that is now a close call.
Credit statistics for Eurozone residents elaborated by the ECB for May shows an increase in the balance for companies of households of +0.3% (+35.775 Bn€), in line with the monthly increases so far this year and the same as the increase in May 2018, according to Bankia Estudios.
Alphavalue | The tight German residential market could be about to start a new cycle of construction. Spending on housing will increase the contribution of internal demand to German GDP growth, something investors would welcome.
Morgan Stanley | As we indicated in our last real estate strategy report, this has been the worst sector in Europe in 2Q19 (oversold and with a relative performance of 3.5sd below its 12MA). This has been mainly motivated by concerns about the proposal to freeze rental prices in the city of Berlin (and its possible spread to other cities in the country) as well as the uncertainty regarding Brexit.
Neil Dwane (Allianz) | As Europe faces a world that may soon encompass Brexit and widening trade tension between the EU, the US and China – as well as growing political strains centred around Iran, Russia, Ukraine, NATO, Nordstream II and climate change, the next EU President faces an even more complex yet pressing array of challenges.
Ioannis Glinavos via Macropolis | Greece is heading for a general election on July 7. A great part of the political narrative around this election is a confrontation between a supposedly fantastical leftist alternative and a mature, European direction for Greece. The former is represented by Alexis Tsipras and SYRIZA, while the latter is allegedly promised by Kyriakos Mitsotakis and New Democracy.
J.L.M. Campuzano (AEB) | The European Central Bank released the data of the M3 and its counterparts in the euro area until May. The intermediate liquidity objective maintains its annual evolution stable by 4.8%, supported by a strong increase of 7.2% in cash and demand deposits. The rest of its components, such as deposits and market instruments, maintain marginal growth.
More than two months after the elections, the European Council agreed on the future leadership of the EU institutions. Spanish Foreign minister Josep Borrell will be the next foreign policy chief; Ursula von der Leyen will lead the Commission; Charles Michel, the Council and Christine Lagarde will be the next ECB head.
Jens Bastian via Macropolis | The German government’s view of the candidates for prime minister ahead of Greece’s early elections on July 7 is rather ambiguous. This is largely due to the fact that PM Tsipras has undergone a remarkable political transition in office. His efforts at staging various policy U-turns over the course of the past four years have led to an impressive reassessment in Berlin of his term as Greek prime minister.
Jean-Christophe Delfim (Edmond de Rothschild ) | Economic growth in the Eurozone was 1.9% in 2018. However, in the last quarter a slowdown was observed to 1.2% yoy, due to the negative contribution of the trade balance (-0.4 pp), as a consequence of the sharp deceleration in exports provoked by international trade disputes.