Making democracy work certainly is no mean task but one way of understanding the victory of Emmanuel Macron in France is reason beating irrational fears. Or as Macron himself has said: you convince people “by speaking to their intelligence.”
A political risk scenario is not taking shape in Europe, but that doesn’t mean there are no problems. They are still there and in France they will rear their head under the concept of “cohabitation.” The new president of the French Republic, more than likely, will have to live with the National Assembly being dominated by the traditional parties.
Emmanuel Macron’s success in the presidential elections has alleviated fears France might fall into the black pit of extremism. But he faces the huge task of delivering growth by sweeping reforms while preserving most of the current social model. A task that will prove elusive unless he secures solid parliamentary backing.
For the AlphaValue coverage (478 European stocks, c. €9.5Tn market cap), the 2017 expected pay-out ratio should be about 56% but “only” 49% on a median basis, “ergo big earners pay out more” says analysts from the house. An 11-year history of this ratio would show that the gap between average and median is going up with some sort of a maximum reached in 2016.
Last week marked the last prime minister’s questions before the British election in June and seems a good place to examine the reasons Theresa May might be less secure that she seems. While her Conservative Party is 21 points ahead of Labour in the polls — its biggest lead in almost a decade — there are four reasons to doubt it will stay there.
After 2015′ s Greece referendum, Tsipras got an attack of the jitters, a possible coup d’etat was insinuated, so he decided to turn the sense of the referendum around, giving in unconditionally to the demands of the Brussels bureaucrats. If Marine Le Pen were to win the second round of Sunday’s French elections, would she give into pressure from inside and outside Europe to renounce her goal of getting rid of the euro?
With a very low jobless rate (5,8%), Germany is growing for the eighth year in a row. This is allowing it to attract capital and qualified workers. Even so, the future of the jobs market is a concern, and a key issue in this Autumn’s elections.
The surprisingly low annual eurozone inflation reading for March at 1.5% will finally end speculation about an earlier end to the negative deposit rate in today’s ECB’s governing council meeting, as reported by Julius Bär’s experts. Both ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet and ECB President Mario Draghi have already made clear in recent weeks that interest rates will not rise before the ECB’s asset-purchasing programme comes to an end.