We need to analyse what the “inflation triggers” are at the moment, beginning with those related to the domestic environment. In this case, key factors are salaries and what’s happening with prices.
Tapering will come anyway, largely because of technical/ political constraints around QE. The ECB will still have to justify this with a macroeconomic narrative. This is what the ECB President has set out to do.However, experts at BoAML believe that what he said yesterday in Sintra central bankers summit is also consistent with a very slow exit.
Suprising as it may be, 18 of the 19 members of the Eurozone saw an increase in GDP in Q1’17 with respect to Q4’16. Spain’s GDP improved by 0.6%; Italy managed to grow (0.2%); Germany and France clocked up a 0.4% rise. Only Greece remained in the red. The unemployment rate in the region has officially fallen to 9.6%…there is growth.
The recent rescue of two ailing Italian banks -Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca-broke away from the standard bail-in procedures introduced by the EU. The trick used for implementing that circumvention was based on the official guarantee that the two lame ducks did not represent a systemic danger.
France’s new, more liberal regime could refuel the polemic yet again over the necessity or otherwise of the government having an investment portfolio as it does at the moment. This “holding” is valued at close to 80 billion euros.
June 19 was day one of the Brexit negotiations. David Davis and Michel Barnier will be leading what is expected to be one of the most tantalising sets of negotiations in the history of European integration. Difficult decisions will have to be taken on a number of issues, such as the rights of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU, the Irish border and the future of the UK-EU trade relationship.
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | From recent ECB statistics, there would seem to be a recovery in financing in line with the monetary authority’s implict goal when it implemented its extreme measures.
While the IEA found positive developments in Hungary’s energy strategy, the country clearly has much more work to do to further develop and diversify its energy sector. Leaving behind unfair regulations and taxes on renewables wouldn’t be a bad start.