In Europe

A snapshot of the Greek economy

Dimitris Smyrnakis via Macropolis | Following January’s five-year bond issuance, which raised 2.5 billion, along with Moody’s upgrading the country’s sovereign credit rating to B3 from B1 and Fitch’s confirming its own rating at BB-, last Tuesday Greece issued its first 10-year bond since the country entered the debt crisis nine years ago.

The Eurozone’s major fiscal stimulus of the decade may arrive not with a common plan but rather through national initiatives

The market has scarcely contemplated the possibility of a major fiscal stimulus in the Eurozone. However, the strategists at Morgan Stanley believe that, after two years marked by a restrictive fiscal policy, we could see the largest fiscal stimulus of the last decade, not through a common plan, but rather through national level initiatives, especially in Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

Some takeaways from Xi Jinping’s visit to France and Italy and ideas for the EU-China summit

Alicia Garcia Herrero (Natixis/Bruegel) | Only a few days before Li Keqiang’s official visit to Brussels for the EU-China summit on April 2019, Xi Jinping has conducted his second trip to Southern Europe in only five months. Such a keen interest in Southern Europe is hard to understand, especially if one considers that Chinese high level officials are busy negotiating with the US to reach a deal to halt the trade war.

Eurozone GDP: Hitting bottom?

Santander Research | The performance of the Eurozone economy in 2018 was far from meeting expectations. Having exceeded expectations in 2017, with GDP growth yoy of 2.5% – the strongest since the 3.1% in 2007 – the economy registered a strong slowdown in 2018 with caused up to a 1.8% fall yoy in GDP. Although, probably, the growth levels of 2017 were not sustainable – taking into account the economic fundamentals of the Eurozone and the performance of the rest of the world – , the economic slowdown was strong, especially in the second half of 2018. In quarterly terms, GDP went from growing a quarterly average of o.7% in 2017 to only 0.4% in the first half of 2018 and a quarterly average of 0.2% in 2018.

Britain’s long history of trying – and failing – to gain independence from European trade partner

Giada Pizzoni via The Conversation |More than 400 years later, the UK is once again dreaming of the unimaginable riches that could be had by breaking away from the old continent. Brexit would have globalisation in trade as the answer, but over the past four centuries as its empire has risen and fallen, it is Europe that provided the UK with many of its most sought after commodities. It’s hard to imagine this changing much in the future.

The position of the ECB on TLTROs III could be less generous than expected

The Position Of The ECB on TLTROs III Could Be Less Generous Than Expected

According to leaks to Reuters about the future format of TLTROs, the third edition of these operations will be designed to limit entities’ appetite for them, with options like toughening the rules for collateral and the establishment of more ambitious targets for credit volumes. According to ECB sources, this reflects the belief that Eurozone economic fundamentals are stronger than in previous years.

The European Non-Union And Brexit – Plus Ça Change …

Shaun Riordan | This week is billed as, yet another, crucial week in the Brexit process. Prime Minister May will yet again bring her withdrawal deal back to parliament. Little has changed since she last presented it, and it looks like being rejected again.