Europe, where everyone is against everbody else. The victory in Italy of the populist Five Star Movement and Lega has shattered into a million pieces the slight possibilities of having a more united Europe, or a more federal one, or whatever you want to call it.
Morgan Stanley believes Spain and Italy are going to dominate Net Interest Income growth in 2019. They flag that Unicaja, Bankinter and Caixabank are amongst the banks which improve their ROTE more with every 50 bp rise in the Euribor. Furthermore, they have very efficient cost structures.
Portugal has seen 16 consecutive months of growth, something completely unthinkable up to just a short while ago. Submerged in a deep economic crisis, Portugal had a grim and difficult road ahead: aggressive adjustment plans, social tensions, a rise in unemployment, disenchantment with politicians etc…But gradually the improving scenario was confirmed.
John Bruton | On March 2, British Prime Minister Theresa May delivered a key speech on the United Kingdom’s future relationship with the European Union. My first reaction was that the UK is going to put itself and other EU countries through a lot of trouble just so it can leave the union and then rejoin it in selected areas.
Establishing a minimum wage is a policy which is widely extended in the UE: 22 countries implement it. That said, it is not free from controversy. In general, setting a minimum wage aims to protect workers with fewer qualifications and/or work experience. But depending on the level at which it is set, it can have a negative effect on employment.
Sunday’s Italian election have left behind a complex scenario and a lot of attention will be on the negotiations to form a government. In fact, Matteo Renzi has been the first domino to fall as he has decided to resign after his party’s negative results. But in Germany a political future is shaping up, after the Socialdemocrat Party gave the green light to the agreement with the conservatives of Christian Democrat leader Angela Merkel.
Athanasios Dimadis and Pierre Moscovici | President Trump’s election marked a new turn in the US-EU relations. EU commissioner for economic affairs, Pierre Moscovici, did not shrink from using harsh language in the past to respond to President Trump’s comments about potential EU collapse. During the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Moscovici suggested that the isolationist tendencies inherent in Trump’s “America First” approach could be countered by what he calls a “European way.”
“Markets may well be in for another Italian surprise”. Deutsche Bank’s analysts do not make this claim lightly. On their reading of the admittedly ambiguous data, they believe the anti-establishment Five-Star movement may only be a normal polling error away from being able to block the formation of any realistic, broadly centrist, pro-European government.
The Bank of England has indicated that the pace of interest rate increases could accelerate if the economy remains on its current track. You have to wonder what the eminent experts on the MPC drink in their tea to be so off course about the current track of the UK economy.
In total, despite the big recession, the German economy has grown 26% so far this century and, even more importantly, 20% from the minimums of Q1’09. It is currently experiencing one of its best moments since the “V” exit from the big crisis.