Shaun Riordan | The fate of Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy was in the end settled by the five votes of the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV). Until yesterday´s debate in the Congress, Rajoy was confident that the Basques, who last week voted in favour of the 2018 budget, would abstain. This would have denied socialist leader of the absolute majority he needed to eject Rajoy from the Moncloa Palace. But this time the Basque Nationalist Party had other priorities.
In Spain today all eyes will be on the voting on the no-confidence motion which we expect will be successful. Unless current Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy decides to resign ahead of the vote. So everything points to PSOE leader, Pedro Sánchez, becoming the new Prime Minister. It looks like he will not propose new elections immediately, which we believe will prolong the political instability in the country.
The Spanish government is facing a motion of censure. In the country’s parliamentary system, if one is presented it requires that an alternative candidate be put forward, who will certainly be the socialist Pedro Sánchez. The debate and the voting will be held on 31 May and 1 June, respectively. Considering the current composition of parliament, Bankinter’s experts provide below the three possible numeric combinations needed for the motion of censure to go through.
Is Germany pro-independence? No, no it isn’t, despite the fact that the separtist propaganda operates intelligently in Germany – with Puigdemont top of the list, in his role as the victim of an oppressive and anti-democratic Spain.
Ever since the nationalists in Catalonia flared a low key rebellion against Madrid, the region seems close to the world depicted by Aldous Huxley. They are attempting to create a brand new life, erasing all Spanish vestiges from early childhood onwards.
Whether the secessionists lead the new Catalonia’s government or not after December 21 elections, the weakened Spanish government will be inevitably forced to go through a negotiated constitutional reform which, amongst other objectives, will aim to satisfy the unrepentant Catalan nationalism.
Ciudadanos (37 seats) was the party which won the most votes in Catalonia but will not be able to form a government. The independent block still has control of the Parlament with 70 seats versus the 57 won by the constitutionalists and the 68 needed for an absolute majority. Ciudadanos’ victory is significant, a difficult milestone to achieve given the current electoral law. But the secessionists were able to hold on to their absolute majority in the regional parliament.
On the day when Catalonia votes for a new government, the region’s citizens are very confused about the reasons and where the blame lies for the situation they find themselves in.
For the time being, Spain’s economy is maintaining its cruising speed and GDP will grow 3.1% this year, according to estimates. But Catalonia’s progress is visibly slowing, with figures continually being downgraded.