The three big electricity companies in the Ibex 35 index, Iberdrola, Fenosa Gas Naural and Endesa are holding their breath ahead of the outcome of Sunday’s general elections. The years under the PP government have been overall difficult for them and the group, also called the Oligopoly, has a list of outstanding claims and petitions for which a solution will be difficult to find if Spain’s next government is left-wing.
The fourth corner of Spain’s new political chessboard is called “Ciudadanos,” a social movement born in Catalonia 10 years ago and fostered by Catalan independence. Their slogans are: liberty, equality, laicism, bilingualism, Constitution. They elected Albert Rivera, a young lawyer from Barcelona, as their leader in a jam-packed meeting held in that city’s Tivoli theatre in July 2006.
In January 2014, dozens of people got together in the Teatro del Barrio in Lavapies, (in the centre of Madrid), to form a political party to participate in the European Parliament elections to be held in May of that year. They needed 50,000 signatures to formalise their candidacy. Within in few days, they had the signatures and the embrio of what is now (920 days later) PODEMOS was born
Fernando Rodríguez | Barely 10% of Spain’s 6 listed constructors’ business is generated at home. But problems like the recent cancellation of the real estate plan included in Madrid’s Operacion Chamartin, due to the decision of the city council which is close to Podemos, are all contributing to maintaining the generic perception that they are “Spanish companies” subject to political risk.
A favourable international situation can conceal Spain’s economy structural deficiencies. But if these were to disappear, the Spanish economy would have problems in balancing its public accounts and its financial position with the rest of the world.
The PSOE party, with 137 years of history, has already had four leaders so far this century, none of whom have consolidated their position. That said, Rodriguez Zapatero succeeded in heading up two relative majority governments and two minority administrations between 2004 and 2012.
Spaniards will go out and vote again on June 26, six months after the ordinary elections which took place when Rajoy’s government ended its mandate, having enjoyed a four-year majority. The result of the December 20 polls was an impossible political chessboard, with no group capable of forming a government.
It’s embarrassing that the PSOE is saying the labour reform has been negative and that the PP is promising to lower taxes when Spain has to negotiate new spending cuts with Brussels.
UBS | In this report, we focus on three pivotal questions that we consider crucial for investing in any security in Spain: First, what is the economic outlook for 2016/17, and what are the biggest economic policy challenges that the next government will face? Second, what are the likely scenarios for the outcome of the elections on 26 June? And third, what is the valuation and relative attractiveness of Spanish assets, how will asset markets react to different election outcomes, and what is or is not priced in?
Ten million Spaniards watched the most important debate between candidates from the four parties which could form a Government in Spain on Monday night. And yet the participants did not clarify the most important point: Will there be a Government after the elections on June 26?