June will be a breathtaking month. The outcome of the British referendum could spark shock waves, causing financial assets to plummet everywhere should the Leave camp win. France could be plunged into disarray as the bitter response to the rather mild labour market reform creates further turmoil and widespread strikes.
In the US, many, like Blanchard and Krugman, have for long advocated a higher inflation target as a means of getting the economy ‘moving’.
UBS | US E&Ps cut capex by ~40% YoY in 2015 & are budgeted to cut >50% YoY this year. This has caused the US oil rig count to plunge from a peak of 1,609 in 2H14 to 328 (7- year low). But as spot WTI prices have moved from <$30/Bbl earlier this year to ~$46/Bbl currently, one of the key questions energy investors are asking is when will US E&Ps begin to add rigs?
Caixin | As two of the most significant economies driving global growth today, commentators often compare the emerging market behemoths, China and India. In recent times, the two countries have eclipsed Brazil, Russia and South Africa, their BRICS counterparts, in terms of economic growth. However, there are significant differences between the two Asian economies.
The president of the ECB’s Supervisory Board, Daniele Nouy, recently again expressed concerns about the profitability challenge faced by the European banks, suggesting mergers as a solution. This consolidation process is also on the cards in India.
UBS | Improved EM asset performance this year has been driven by a) the tremendous credit stimulus from China, b) a change in the reaction function of the Fed, which helped EM currencies rally against the USD, and, c) the rebalancing in the oil market. Investors are already questioning the first two, but oil has continued to trade very well.
James Alexander via Historinhas | A new book has just been released on problems with central banks. The best chapter looks like the one on group-think. John Taylor, one of the book’s editors describes it thus: “Kevin Warsh’s (ex-FOMC member) report on the lack of effective deliberations at the FOMC is one of the most surprising parts of the book.
The recent disclosure of the April FOMC minutes has come as a shock. Investors expected a cautious wait-and-see stance by the Federal Reserve at that meeting. But now we discover that a majority of its members openly supported a rate hike at the June gathering, should macro-economic delivery prove reasonably upbeat.
Zhu Haibin via Caixin | A recent government plan to invest 4.7 trillion yuan in over 300 infrastructure projects from 2016 to 2018 received wide attention and raised questions about whether this was another massive stimulus similar to the one rolled out in 2008 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
The way companies are behaving is creating distortions in the stock markets, particularly on the other side of the Atlantic. Share buybacks over there have increased by 20% in the first quarter of 2016 from end-2015 and by 31% in year-on-year terms, based on S&P Dow Jones Indices.