By CaixaBank Research | Emerging Europe continues to present two very different faces: while it has been going through a relatively calm time since the summer in terms of the financial stress resulting from the euro area’s sovereign debt crisis, the trend in data for activity has yet to improve to any notable extent.
In the fall of 2008, the collapse of the Icelandic banking system sent thousands of promising young Icelanders into unemployment. Today, Iceland’s Generation Y is turning to entrepreneurship to dig out from under the country’s financial crisis.
In what felt like an unexpected slap, US factory production shrank in November, the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index falling to 49.5 (50 marks the dividing line between expansion and contraction) from 51.7 in October instead of the expected 51.4. It’s the biggest contraction since July 2009, a clear sign of fiscal cliff angst.
Trade data from the eurozone shows Germany posting a deficit while Italy and Spain generate surpluses, J.P. Morgan Asset Management on Monday briefed investors. As relative labour costs continue to fall, one of the key imbalances that provoked the eurozone crisis will fade away.
By Carlos Díaz Guell | A sound Mexican GDP is important for the several thousands of Spanish companies with business activity in the country.
BARCELONA | CaixaBank | The exorbitant rise in house prices has not been uniform or widespread in China but has been concentrated in a few of the country’s large cities. Yet, it’s important not to lose sight of the risk entailed by a real estate boom.
Discretion advice: If you are an European businessman struggling to get credit, or a US home buyer looking for a reasonable interest rate mortgage, this may hurt your feelings: Canada’s banks are lending money.
AMSTERDAM | Fleur de Weerd | Although Spain is always mentioned as the country with the greatest unemployment, the situation in Italy and Bulgaria is more worrying.
BARCELONA | CaixaBank | The adjustment in employment during the crisis has been more intense in those countries with a real estate bubble. Leading indicators point to further job losses.
China’s GDP grows by 7.4% in the third quarter, in line with the consensus, CaixaBank says. Exports push forward with a solid 9.9% year-on-year last month.