Oil sector – Drilling deeper: It’s the demand, stupid
May 25, 2015 | BNP Paribas | Data highlights that there is more pain to come for Drillers for the foreseeable future…and the opportunity for further offshore deflation for E&Ps and Majors.
World economy
Persistently problematic productivity
May 22, 2015 | UBS | Why has real GDP growth been surprisingly weak compared to job gains? Why do some economists expect only slowly-trending GDP expansion in the coming years? Why has the unemployment rate fallen more often than expected?
Fed in a holding pattern
May 21, 2015 | By UBS analysts | The March FOMC statement had disposed of patience with regard to the funds rate, clearly preparing for the possibility or even likelihood of raising rates in June. But Q1 growth slowed more than expected, and the FOMC became more cautious in its April statement.
If you don’t like quantitative easing, then look at Japan’s story
May 21, 2015 | By Benjamin Cole via Marcus’ Nunes Historinhas | If you don’t like quantitative easing, then consider this: The Nikkei 225, a broad measure of Japan’s stock market, is up 45.9% in the last 52 weeks.
Are copper prices signalling an improvement in global manufacturing?
The Corner | May 19, 2015 | Copper prices were back above $6,300/t in April for the first time in 2015. Since this commodity is used in so many industries, it is crucial to know if this move will be sustained and send a positive signal to global manufacturers or it is only driven by a speculative market.
The Fed should get smart and stop ‘targeting’ unemployment
SAO PAULO | May 15, 2015 | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | It´s such a bad ‘target’ that the Fed has been compelled to move the target frequently over the past couple of years, all the way from 6.5% to 5%-5.2%!
Ben Bernanke 2002: We need you
May 8, 2015 | By Benjamin Cole via Marcus Nunes‘ Historinhas | I have plugged for QE-offset or -financed tax cuts for a long time. I did not know that former Fed Chairman and now multi-millionaire consultant Ben Bernanke also explicitly believed in the same thing.
Does price stability entail financial stability?
PARIS | May 5, 2015 | By Franceso Saraceno and Paul Hubert | We subscribe to Krugman’s view that financial stability should be targeted by combining macro- and micro-prudential policies, and that inflation targeting is largely insufficient.
Responding to a slowing Chinese economy
BERKELEY | May 4, 2015 | By Barry Eichengreen via Caixin | Chinese policymakers could depreciate the yuan, try monetary expansion or turn to fiscal stimulus. They could also do nothing.
Notion that Chinese stock market can boost economy is misguided
BEIJING | April 30, 2015 | Caixin Editorial | China’s stock market is on a roll, giving rise to a view that it could help revive the slowing economy. The two have an interesting relationship, and there are advantages and disadvantages to using the market to boost growth. Yet, in the current circumstances, the stock market will be hard pressed to perform that role.