DUBLIN | By Sean Duffy | With fears surrounding the Eurozone, Russia and the BRICS economies, the only certainty about the year 2015 appears to be that it will continue a period of global economic uncertainty. The Corner takes a look at some of the issues and factors that are likely to dominate the headlines in the year ahead.
MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | As Greece plunges again into wild uncertainty, following a call for snap elections, once again the Eurozone shivers at the prospect of a full-fledged crisis. Even if the flight for safety has reduced the bund rates to fresh lows, no other economy has come under attack for the time being. But should Syriza emerge as the winning party in the January polls, the truce might be over.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | The designs of the markets are unfathomable. Mario Draghi might forget the QE idea and the British housing sector might collapse. These are some of the Saxo Bank’s ludicrous forecasts for 2015. A year ago they claimed there would be a default in the Russian debt and the collapse of the oil price, and they were right. Nonetheless, most of the experts that talked to The Corner agree on a scenario for 2015 led by the ECB’s quantitative easing, the oil price reduction and low interest rates.
MADRID | By Ana López-Varela | “The OPEC will not cut production even if the oil barrel drops to $20.” The intentions of the Saudi Oil Minister, Ali al Naimi, are stark. But, how will the OPEC’s decision of maintaining the production quota at 30 million barrel per day affect the markets? And which are the forecasts that market watchers have regarding the oil? In general, they expect the prices to increase. However, futures traders remain more conservative.
MADRID | The Corner | The Japanese government approved last Saturday a new stimulus program to inject up to ¥3.5 billion (€23.8 billion or $29.1 billion), which will help the less developed regions of Japan and the households with subsidies, vouchers for goods and other similar measures. The government of Japan expect this new stimuli plan to boost the GDP by 0.7%. Despite the many critics to the so-called Abenomics program, the measures are still on-going as the advisor to the new government William H. Saito explained in an interview for The Corner.
BANGALORE | By Srikanth Vasuraj | Coming from a non-believer this is a big change when I say that I am actually glad that Mr. Narendra Modi has taken over the helm in India. He comes across like a breath of fresh air, speaking the language that people of India have been dying to hear for a long time. This is probably one of the reasons why he won with such a huge mandate. But now that the dust of elections has settled and having been in the hot seat for around six months, the honeymoon period is over and people are eagerly looking forward to delivery on all those promises. The people of India have delivered. Now its his turn.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | What has growth to do with growing inequality? Until recently, we thought that inequality favoured growth, or in anycase it had a neutral impact on it. Growth was the “best supplier” to create new opportunities, through the vertical mobility of the most flexible countries. But the OECD released this report showing how inequality “significantly” curbs economic prosperity. And yet, Krugman is skeptical that the inverse correlation between inequality and growth is so obvious. According to him, strong evidence is lacking, and there are signs that part of inequality can be cured with growth.
SAO PAULO | By Benjamin Cole via Marcus Nunes’s Historinhas | The results are in, and it appears the Fed’s use of QE—faltering, dithering, at times mindlessly circumscribed in advance—was moderately successful in helping the U.S. climb out of recession. Europe is still mired in econo-gloom, courtesy of the ECB’s monetary noose around its neck. Japan may only now be fighting its way out of perma-gloom by way of aggressive QE. The U.S., in contrast, has posted slow growth since the end of the 2008-09 “great recession”.
MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | In a blow to PM Shinzo Abe, the Japanese inflation rate fell to its lowest level in over a year in November (0.7% from a 0.9% rise the previous month, according to government data released Friday), complicating efforts of the central bank to end more than a decade of chronic price falls. Does this mean, as stimulus sceptics put it, that the Abenomics are doomed? Advisor to the new government and one of the 100 Most Influential People for Japan according to Nikkei Business, William H. Saito believes we have been quick to judge their strategy. As he explained to me, they have “many plan B’s left.”
SHANGHAI | By Qi Bing via Caixin | The smooth opening of the Hu-Gang Tong, the Shanghai-Hong Kong bourse linkage, marked the entrance of the Chinese capital market to a new era and was a major global event. It follows on progress China has made in opening up its markets after joining the World Trade Organization, and will hopefully greatly boost the country’s economic and social reforms in the years to come.