World economy

Change of cycle to cyclical stocks to defensive

JP Morgan just can’t agree

While the US bank’s chief economist in pointing to systemic risks, financial bubbles and market complacency, his colleagues in Spain believe “this tale about market manipulation is not real.”




the US exhibits relatively more risks compared to the euro area.

Financial Stability Risks: Nonfinancial Sector Extended In US Vs Slow Healing In The Eurozone

Unsurprisingly, the US exhibits relatively more risks compared to the euro area, with one red flag in particular being the price of risk in asset markets reflecting elevated asset prices across fixed income, equities and real estate. In the Euro zone, risks look mor e modest except in some pockets related to price distortions as a result of the European Central Bank ’s quantitative easing strategy.



The three new horsemen of the commercial Apocalypse

The Three New Horsemen Of The Commercial Apocalypse

Peter Navarro, Wilbur Ross and Robert Lightizer: these are the three new horsemen of the Apocalypse. At least for the majority of US businessmen and investors. They appear to have constituted the core of Donald Trump’s team of economic advisors.


The word of the IMF: a more unified euro area

The IMF is forecasting global growth of over 3.9% in 2018. For the Eurozone, the forecast is for growth of 2.2%. The fifth year of economic expansion, confirming sustained and diversified growth. And the Washington-based organisation is calling for greater integration in the euro area.



US tariffs

Phyrric US Tariffs: Protect a few at the cost of many

BoAML | President Trump enacted tariffs on imported steel and aluminum with the exception of imports from Canada and Mexico. Domestic metal producers should benefit while the rest of the economy could feel the negative repercussion of higher input prices. The bigger risk is a trade war. The current policy is unlikely to have a big impact. However, a bigger trade war would be a nudge toward stagflation, depressing real growth and boosting prices.

Facebook 's leak of users

Facebook Fear Unlikely To Knock Tencent Off Its Throne

As the saying goes, data is the new oil. And this month Facebook has fallen victim to a BP-scale leak in which 50 million users’ data was harvested without consent. While technology companies in the West feel the pressure, Jason Pidcock, Jupiter’s head of strategy on Asian income, argues that the picture looks brighter in Asia, particularly for the darling of Asian software technology: Tencent.