World economy

Trump's certainties: oil & taxes

Trump’s Two Certainties: Oil & Taxes

After two days in Washington DC meeting with politicians and policymakers, BoAML analysts conclude that energy “is a policy cornerstone, together with tax reform, in this Administration”


inflation is not priority of central banks

Controlling Inflation Is Still Not The Priority Of Central Banks

Despite quantitative easing and 3 years of more synchronised developed economy growth, it is not clear that inflation has really got any traction. Technology, globalisation, unemployment and changes in working practices have all contributed to the lack of inflationary pressures and still do.



US protectionism

US Protectionism Could Toss World Trade Into Tailspin

Razeen Sally via Caixin | International trade is in trouble after the global financial crisis and, with the new Donald Trump administration, the world faces a protectionist onslaught. As a result, there are three ways that international trade can go from here — one considerably more likely than the other two.

Brazil-interruptedTC

Brazil: recovering in slow motion

The improving macroeconomic backdrop and continued rise of the middle class as well as high private health spending, make Brazil a potentially “attractive” investment destination. However, AXA IM analyst Manolis Davradakis point that “the emerging market’s poor ranking in terms of ease of doing business and international competitiveness, plenty of risks remain.


US an empire

Will There Be Five Empires as the US Leaves the World?

Stephen Chan | Bernard Henri Levy, the French intellectual and provocateur, recently said that, in the wake of the US withdrawal into itself, the world stage would feature five empires. These would be Russia, Iran, Turkey, Islamic extremism and the commercial might of China.


Currencies war

What Happened To The ‘Currencies War’?

There are still divergences between the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB. But if Draghi meets expectations for progressive withdrawal of the stimuli from September and rate hikes in the first few months of 2018, a new “currencies war” is not on the cards in the near future.


Prices in the US meets Fed's target

The Miracle Of The Prices And Fishes In The US

Despite the chaos of the Trump administration, prices have reached the Fed’s target. The announced “tapering” is complicated because if the central bank is not careful rates could shoot up more than necessary.



US soft a and hard data

The debate about US soft and hard data comes back

So-called ‘soft’ data, such as strong sentiment indicators and survey levels for the US economy, have raised the debate whether the real economic indicators ahead – the so-called ‘hard’ data – will be able to fulfil the expectations created, or whether they will instead disappoint and lead to market unrest.