LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Q1 data suggest that the refocusing of the FLS scheme toward SMEs’ funding has yet to deliver. Credit remains subdued for SMEs, despite an improvement in overall availability of and demand for credit for private non-financial corporations. Higher consumer confidence, coupled with improvements in the economic outlook, bodes well for household consumption in Q2.
SAO PAULO | By Benjamin Cole via Marcus Nunes’ Historinhas | One of the bromides of modern macroeconomics is that “long-term, money is neutral.” The above maxim makes sense on some levels. A nation is made rich or poor by its investment in infrastructure, education, farmland, factories, work ethics and the like. Running printing presses, per se, is meaningless.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | What can small countries’ firms do in the world biggest democracy, built on 28 nations more than regions? Some Spanish companies in India have been able to manage big four toll roads (Isolux), control 80% of its airspace safety (Indra), excel in the olive oil market (Borges), or even list in the Bombay’s stock exchange (CIE Automotive). After the historical victory of Narendra Modi their prospects are even better, considering that India’s middle-upper class ranges between 50 and 300 million people.
If Sisi does not stabilize the energy and power sector, the Egyptian street’s patience will not last forever. The Egyptian presidential election takes place between May 26-28, having been extended by one day due to low voter turnout. Former Gen. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is poised to win by a landslide against left-wing candidate Hamdeen Sabahi. Langendorf and Dargin talk about the Egyptian presidential election, the country’s energy crisis and its potential consequences.
BEIJING | By Andy Xie via Caixin | The quality of China’s GDP growth is rising with falling property prices. The economy is diverting resources away from wasteful bubble activities to productive ones. While growth is slowing, it reflects shrinking of the bad GDP. Two-thirds of the economy is still expanding steadily. More importantly, China is experiencing a labor shortage due to a shrinking of working-age population and steady economic expansion. The economy is in a strong position to absorb the fallout of a deflating property bubble.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | We believe that one of the reasons why loan growth has been so anaemic thus far in the recovery is because the recovery in capital spending has been very poor. However, an improving outlook for Capex could see loan demand pick-up and be supportive of future earnings growth for the domestic banking sector.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | 2014 was supposed to be different. After three years of disappointment, this was meant to be the year when the global economy had a broader, higher and more persistently solid level of growth – at least, this was the consensus narrative. In the end, the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of global growth in Q1 was among the weakest of the recovery. US growth was near zero (probably negative after revisions) and China’s GDP growth was below already low forecasts.
MADRID | The Corner | Mario Draghi says the ECB is comfortable with taking action in June, and markets see it as a more or less done deal. This time the Bundesbank is not likely to say a word, as basic economic theory shows there is not much else to discuss: when money is pumped into a system, it shows up either like inflation or growth. And the Eurozone needs both.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | (Note to generation y: The Rat Pack was the name given to a group of actors led by Frank Sinatra Dean Martin and Sammy Davis Jr) In 2005 Edward Nelson, at the Research Department of the St Louis Fed, wrote a very interesting paper entitled “Monetary Policy Neglect and the Great Inflation in Canada, Australia and new Zealand”.
By Ray Kwong | It’s not an “ultimate weapon” like the Death Star from the Star Wars movie franchise, but the giant oil rig that China has parked just 140 miles away from Hanoi is equally as ominous. Much as the Galactic Empire used the Death Star’s presence to keep the weak in line, China’s decision to position the rig in the South China Sea in an area claimed by Vietnam is a demonstration of its regional muscle and resolve to assert its territorial claims.