World economy

Earnings seasons

Earnings season, or the art of managing expectations

WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | We are, again, in the midst of an earnings season. But, should we call it ‘earning season’ or ‘earnings exceed the forecast session’? Because companies tend to earn more than they expected, and also more than the markets’ forecast. Another nail in the coffin of the Efficient Market Hypothesis?


No Picture

Argentina’s Peso devaluation “bites the bullet” without a full set of teeth

NEW YORK | By JP Morgan’s Foreign Exchange team | A devaluation unanchored (at least so far) by a needed broader anti-inflation plan can only induce expectations of further devaluation in Argentina (if the government is effectively adopting a free-float) or a resumption of reserve loss (when and if the government intends to subsequently resume its Foreign Exchange intervention).


New Deal

The Fed has Showed Why Fiscal Policy is Still Important

NEW YORK | By Mike Konczal via Next New Deal | One way of judging how the economy evolved in 2013 is to compare it to the Federal Reserve’s projections of it. As some market monetarists believe, these projections aren’t neutral projections of inflation and growth but also a communication of what the Fed thinks about what it can accomplish. So, how did the Fed’s projections for 2013 turn out? Did the economy end up how the Fed said it would when it announced expanded monetary policy?


No Picture

Gas pipeline from Russia to China “sure thing” for 2014

COMMENTS FROM ASIA-PACIFIC by Ray Kwong | Beijing and Moscow have been talking about building a 2,500-mile pipeline to link China with Russia’s plentiful natural gas for over 10 years, but thus far China has refused to pay Russia’s price. That may soon change, however, as China faces both supply gaps beyond 2017 and growing public anger over pollution.


abenomics 1 year on 1

Abenomics one year on

SAO PAOLO | By Marcus Nunes | Shinzo Abe was elected in December 2012 on a promise to revive growth and put an end to deflation. How have his promises ‘performed’ one year after taking power? The ‘performance’ of the so-called Abenomics will be illustrated by a set of charts.


No Picture

Where Has Productivity Growth Gone?

WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Progress, what progress? We live in an era of endless technological possibilities. Or so they say. We have drones to bomb every soul in the remotest desert; GPS to avoid getting lost while paying a visit to our in-laws (it remains to be seen if that is actually a good thing or not); cellphones to tell us how many calories we have burnt during a walk; robots to play the nurses’ role in hospitals (and sometimes they’re even nicer); and, soon, we will see driverless cars which, according to those who have tried them, are way safer than the current, human-controlled ones. In the meantime, this article is being written from Washington, DC, and it will be edited and posted online in New York, on a London-based website.


Algoritmical

Algorithms examiners in the EU to avoid a flat crash

MADRID | By Julia Pastor | The European Parliament and the EU’s governments have just signed an agreement to develop a law that reinforces controls over high frequency computerized stock exchanges trading, in order to avoid sudden collapses of markets. To minimize the systemic risk, the algorithms will have to be examined and authorised by regulators.


No Picture

Obama’s ‘Promise Zones’ Have Potential if They Include Anchor Institutions

NEW YORK | By Joelle Gamble via Next New Deal | According to the White House, the five Promise Zones, which will be established in Los Angeles, San Antonio, Philadelphia, Kentucky, and Oklahoma will focus on replacing distressed housing, reducing crime rates, increasing student high school graduation prospects, and stimulating economic growth via tax incentives.


Africa industrialisation

Africa Must Industrialize Now

The economies of sub-Saharan Africa have, since the late 1990s to 2013, been experiencing consistent economic expansion. Six of the world’s fastest growing economies are currently within this region. Whereas economic growth slumped for most of the world in recent years, sub-Saharan Africa’s growth has stayed resilient right through the global recession.