“Separating political noise from market signals in an era of Tweetstorms, unconventional leadership, and low public trust has possibly never been more challenging”, says Tina M. Fordham, chief global political analyst at Citi. Will geopolitical risks grow in their potential to impact markets following the withdrawal of Quantitative Easing (QE)?
CaixaBank Research | In Spain, the richest 1% of the population earns 8.6% of the country’s income while this figure reaches 20.8% in the US. Are such high levels of inequality desirable or detrimental? Ultimately such a question must be answered by each country according to its own social preferences and values.
In his first press conference, Jerome Powell baffled both the experts and the markets. After reading the hawkish introductory statement, he defused all fears for a harsh and swift monetary tightening.
Degussa | Gold is a “good” that has a truly global demand, and its price is determined by numerous factors. One of those is the market interest rate. The reason is obvius: Gold does not have an “inherent interest rate”. The holders of gold have to bear “opportunity costs”.
Just a couple of years ago, deflation was a concern for US economists. And, although it’s true that this threat has almost disappeared, rises in prices have shown themselves to be surprisingly elusive.
Inspired by game theory, JP Morgan’s analaysts Marko Kolanovic and Bram Kaplan have analysed February 2018 market turmoil against the one that ocurred in August 2015 as both sell-offs had a striking similarity. The conclusion is that if equities follow 2015 flow patterns, new market highs may come soon.
We need to be aware of the existence of regulations over and above the well-known Taylor Law, starting with this regulation adjusted to establishing a downward limit on rates of 0%, which is very important in the US Fed’s case.
By Leng Cheng, Gabriel Crossley, Wu Hongyuran and Peng Qinqin via Caixin | Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), has been named the new head of the central bank, succeeding Zhou Xiaochuan, who has retired after more than 15 years in the post — the longest in the PBOC’s history.
Growth has made a comeback but each country already wants to take its own path. As explained by Philippe Waechter, Chief Economist of Ostrum AM, “unity is no longer on the cards and the world economy is fast going down a very different road”.
With wages rising at well under 3%, any productivity improvements greater than 1% will mean wages are not helping the Federal Reserve hit its putative 2% inflation target.