World economy

The unintended consequences of saving the world from the financial crisis

Niel Dwane (Allianz GI) | The response of central banks to the financial crisis 10 years ago may have saved the world from a devastating depression, but it also created a host of unforeseen effects – from more indebtedness to more economic inequality. Looking back at what we got right – and what went wrong – what lessons can we take away for the future?



French fiscal reforms

Despite fiscal reforms, France´s 2019 deficit will rise again to 3.1% of GDP

Scope Ratings | France has been host of the G7. While its neighbour debates foreign policy, Emmanuel Macron continues to pursue his fiscal reforms, without losing sight of the size of France´s budget deficit (rising towards 3.1% of GDP this year and exceeding the target for 2020) which has caused concerns about the sustainability of the country´s debt.


Fears of a slowdown more pronounced

Fears of a slowdown more pronounced

Investment Desk, Bank Degroof Petercam │ Fears of a slowdown are more pronounced. We are seeing a slight reduction in trade tensions since President Trump announced a partial delay in the imposition of new tariffs on Chinese products. The tariffs on approximately half of the 300,000 goods subject to the measures will be introduced from 15 December instead of September.


Jackson hole

Jackson Hole in the sky

Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, Julius Baer │It is about time: central bankers present their take on the current mess at the Jackson Hole meeting, the prime plat-form for this. The more concerned they are the better. We think concerted central bank action will still avoid a global recession. Warming up to fiscal easing, as in Germany, is the icing on the cake.


US yield curve inverts

Economy on alert: US yield curve inverts

Keith Wade, chief economist at Schroders │ The yield curve has been a reliable element in the prediction of US recessions over the last four decades. With only one exception, every time the curve has inverted, the US economy has entered into recession within 18 months.


China interest rate reform

China: interest rate reform to improve transmission

Magdalene Teo, Fixed Income Research Asia, Eric Mak, Equity Research Analyst Asia, Julius Baer │China has opted for interest rate reform (to be more market-oriented) instead of announcing a benchmark rate cut, so liquidity flow is more targeted to the segments that need it.



gold-price-reflects-real-interest-rate

Gold price relates to real interest rates

DWS | Although gold is considered a hedge against inflation, what is true that, over the last decade, it has closely followed the evolution of real interest rates: when those fall, the price of gold tends to rise.