AENA: good operational evolution – 5,6% increase in international sales

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Banc Sabadell | 3Q19 results above expectations in EBITDA (+4.6% vs +3.3& BS expectation and 3.0% consensus) due to margins slightly above expectations (70.3% vs 69.6% consensus vs 70.5% in 3Q18) where the key has been the acceleration of incomes in the international area (5.6% sales) which has been able to compensate the increase (already known) in personnel costs.

Despite the good current operational evolution, we do not foresee traffic recovering strongly from this point. Thus we expect growth to continue slowing, which would be in line with the forecasts by Aena, which in these results have announced that for 2020 they foresee a growth in traffic of +1.1% (vs +4.4% in the first nine months of 2019), a figure below our current forecast (+2.8% BS estimate). In all, we believe that would be a base scenario (the guidance offered by the company in this sense tend to be conservative) and there is still a margin for a recovery from this level if the macro in Spain remains stable (National traffic is currently growing 1.8X vs International).

In short, results above expectations, where the principal news is the guidance for 2020 traffic, which returns to the table the slowdown evident in growth and with the lack of potential we see in the share we continue to recommend SELL, O.P. 151.00 euros/share (potential -10.12%).

Results 3Q19 vs 3Q18:

Sales: 1.348 Bn € (+4.9% vs 4.8% BS estimate and 4.4% consensus);
EBITDA: 947.39 M€ (+4.6% vs +3.3% BS estimate and 3.0% consensus);
Post tax profit: 555.12 M€ (+10.0% vs +6.7% BS estimate and 5.7% consensus).
Results first nine months 2019 vs first nine months 2018:
Sales: 3.449 Bn€ (+6.1% vs +6.1% BS estimate and 5.9% consensus);
EBITDA: 2.137 Bn€ (+5.1% vs +4.6% BS estimate and 4.4% consensus);
Post tax profits: 1.114 Bn€ (+9.3% vs +7.7% BS estimate and +7.2% consensus).