Amadeus: Solid business, but lack of potential, Sabadell recommends to sell

Air traffic Amadeus

In a difficult year for the sector, AMS has shown solidity in its operations thanks to the high visibility of its revenues (dependent on transactions vs. price) and the global reach of its business, well diversified geographically.

Sabadell analysts commented:

However, the deceleration of air traffic seen since mid-2018 and the risk of disintermediation, leads us to revise downward the Distribution business (51% EBITDA), which implies -5.4% and -5% in the Group sales and EBITDA for the period 2019/25 (ex TravelClick).

This, together with a larger Capex, reduces the P.O. -11% to 74.0 euros / share, leaving little potential (+ 3%). It is quoted with a premium of + 16% vs its historical average, although its growth will be lower (TACC’18 / 25 of + 5.4% vs + 11.4% TACC’14 / 18).