Bankinter prior 2Q19: market situation will be noticeable in net commissions

Renta 4 | Bankinter is publishing its 2Q19 results on July 25, 2019 before the opening of the market. Maintain. Target price 8.1 eur / share. Our estimates point to a net interest margin of 284 million euros, + 5% yoy, and + 3% vs 1Q19 in a quarter where we could see some improvement in the MI / ATM (1.48 % R4e vs. 1.46% in 1Q19). 

Likewise, we expect an advance of net commissions in quarterly terms of + 9%, although it can not be ruled out that their evolution could be less positive due to the worse behavior of the commissions associated with the capital markets, such as commissions for securities services and Asset management, two lines that in 1Q19 represented 45% of the net commissions generated. The gross margin would reach 501 million euros (+ 5% i.a R4e and -1% 2Q19 / 1T19).

As regards operating expenses, we expect an increase of + 5% to R4e up to 264 million euros (+ 5% quarterly) in line with the guidance provided by the growth entity for 2019e at a mid-point. No new developments in the cost of risk that will continue low, leading to net profit to levels of 138 million euros (+ 17% i.a and -5% quarterly).