Profit forecasts for 3Q19 incorporate a fall close to 2 % on both sides of the Atlantic


Banc March | The results of the current quarter should remain weak in a scenario of lower growth than we expected, but the main risk is centred on 2020. The consensus estimates are too high and will be revised downwards.

At the same time as the downward revision of the forecasts of global growth, profit forecasts for the current quarter are weak and incorporate a fall in profits close to 2% on both sides of the Atlantic. In terms of income, the trade war is being felt in European sales, forecasting -0.4% quarter on quarter, while the relative isolation of the US economy allows forecast of growth in sales of close to 4%.

In line with a scenario of lower growth, we reiterate our vision that points to company profits remaining under pressure and no recovery before the end of the year. For the whole of 2019, the revision of profits has situated expected growth at barely 2% compared to the 10% foreseen at the beginning of the year. From out point of view, the greatest risk is in the numbers for 2020, when the consensus maintains a forecast of growth close to 10.2%, which will not be fulfilled and will be less than 5%.