After talks between House Republicans and the White House broke down, Senate leaders took over negotiations, although there are no sign of progress yet. The Republicans’ shift in focus from the Affordable Care Act to longer-term budgetary issues increases the likelihood of a short-term compromise to avoid a debt ceiling breach, in our view.
Our US economists think that continued indecisiveness in Washington and a dearth of data releases could raise the likelihood of the Fed delaying the decision to taper until 2014 (our baseline assumes a December tapering), keeping downward pressure on the USD
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