Eurozone’s macro adjustment – (mostly) Checked

The best indicator of activity in the Eurozone is not the PMIs, but the Sentix Index, the investor sentiment meter: although it is true that it is still at low levels, it just experience the highest rise since August 2009.

When the Sentix rises, the PMI usually follows that rise with a hit ratio of 62%, which would be expected a rebound of the advanced indicators of activity shortly (within the same month). Take a look at the chart:

 

“Last week the manufacturing PMI was slightly revised upwards and the GDP data also surprised positively, analysts at Morgan Stanley observed,” analysts at Morgan Stanley observed. “All this could suggest that much of the macro adjustment would already be done… and for this to be confirmed and the macroeconomic recovery to be sustainable, it would be necessary to see if the parenthesis in the commercial war lasts … and how expansionary fiscal policy takes over monetary stimulus.”