The Bizarre Twist of Spain’s Unemployment Data

The general tone of Spain’s labour market after February’s unemployment data is good. For the first time in 4 years, February’s affiliation to social security increased in 40,000 people, which means reaching for the first time a yearly positive rate of 0.4%. Furthermore, in terms of seasonally adjusted data, employment grew its six month mark. Unemployment rate gave positive numbers as well: It was best February’s data since year 2007 with 1,949 unemployed less against the increase of 59,444 in last year same month. As regards working contracts, they reached one million, which represent most favourable figures since 2008 and also a 14.8% year- on- year growth.

That unemployment decreased by near 2,000 people and social security affiliation increased by 40,000 are good news. After several months with labour market stabilising, chalking up positive figures break negative expectations of too many months, almost six years.

Therefore, the most relevant data about Spain’s February’s unemployment rate is the number of affiliated to social security. They are good indeed. However, by a bizarre twist, these montly figures makes a total amount of 16.2 million of affiliated people and this is one of the worst in all years of XXI century: it is equivalent to 2002 average (with four millions less of people in working age), but also improves past January’s and 2013 January and February’s.

That affiliation’s composition and income from labour market do not go better, but do not go worse either as happened before. Spain may be at the beginning of a recovery start, soft and weak as Spanish Minister of Economy Luis de Guindos repeats while looking closely to a new life in Europe, in contrast with optimistic PM Mariano Rajoy who has decided that the crisis is already out of his agenda.