Scotland referendum: ‘Yes’ victory would hurt UK risk premium

The economist estimates that in this scenario the uncertainty about a new referendum in a few years would have implications on foreign investment, also the monetary policy would have to be looser to compensate, and on sovereign bonds and banks.

For their part, JP Morgan analysts said:

“If the ‘Yes’ wins, Scotland would seek how to get the statehood on March 24th, 2016. This would be done after negotiating with the British government on many issues, including the permanence in the pound currency, the continuance in the European Union, the position of the Queen as head of state, the distribution of debt, incomes from assets and oil, etc.”

 

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