Are we putting the responsilibity of exiting the crisis on central banks’ shoulders? Is ECB’s president Mario Draghi doing traders a favour by playing down the ECB’s responsibility for contributing to volatility? Professor of Financial Mathematics at Bocconi’s University Marcello Minenna answers to these questions from Milan and argues that a low interest rate environment is here to stay.
BEIJING | June 16, 2015 | By Yu Hairong and Wang Liwei via Caixin | Economists are divided over whether deflation in China is endangering the economy or whether it is even a problem.
Guest post by Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | What to make of the recent dust-up around Rogoff World, in which the U.S. would pursue a cashless, deflationary federal police state characterized by negative interest rates? Harvard don Ken Rogoff has suggested this is the best macroeconomic option going forward. My take-away? The economics profession is deep into dementia.
ZURICH | UBS analysts | Our central case is that we will not have deflation in any country except for Spain in 2015. But we cannot rule out the possibility of deflation, so here we look at assets that may outperform during periods of deflation. Generally deflation is bad for equity which de-rates aggressively but the story is more nuanced because particular sectors and styles are affected quite differently.
LONDON | Barclays analysts | We believe this week’s data on inflation and economic activity have provided more arguments to step up ECB’s asset purchase programmes by including EGBs on 22 January, which is our baseline scenario. Inflation entered negative territory in December and is likely to stay negative for a few months before a weaker euro improves the inflation and growth outlook.
LONDON | By Jim McCormick and Keith Parker (Barclays) | At the start of the year, we analyzed the risks of a prolonged bout of deflation in the euro area (Japan-style deflation in Europe getting harder to dismiss). Our broad conclusion was that the risks of deflation in the euro area were probably not materially different from the risks Japan faced in the mid 1990s. Perhaps more important, we felt investors should picture 1996-97 Japan when assessing the risks of euro area deflation today.
MADRID | The Corner | In a report by Atradius Credit Insurance, they say that the disinflationary trend is visible across the Eurozone, but not all countries are expected to face the same issues. Countries that have a large output gap and those that still have to implement the most reforms will face the highest disinflationary pressure. To create a list of the countries most likely to be impacted, we first select the Eurozone markets that have a budget deficit larger than 3.0%, as these are subject to the Excessive Deficit Procedure which forces them to implement fiscal and structural reform.
SAO PAULO | By Benjamin Cole via Marcus Nunes‘ Historinhas | As I predicted, the right-wing has gone past its fixation on absolutely dead prices as an economic cure-all and moral imperative, to the even-better nirvana of…deflation. I wish I was making this up. But comes now University of Chicago scholar John Cochrane, path-breaking with stalwart allies such a FOMC member Charles Plosser, that deflation is an economic elixir, not a sign of stagnation. Cochrane authored a recent The Wall Street Journal op-ed genuflecting to southerly price drifts. I just don’t get it.
MADRID | By Francisco López | The collapse in the price of raw materials in the last number of weeks is good news for consumers, but very bad news in macroeconomic terms because of the heightened risk of deflation in the eurozone. Oil continues to plummet and a barrel of Brent is now priced at $82, 30%, lower than its June level and is currently trading at a four year low.
MADRID | The Corner | Which is the real origin of the deflationist pressure that the global economy is facing? A greater desire of saving money than investing at a global scale, experts at Morgan Stanley point out. The eurozone, Japan and the most stable emerging countries have a greater control over their domestic interest rates, whereas China, whose currency is pegged to the USD, will also import deflation -something Beijing won’t like.