Search Results for US monetary policy

fed powell nov 2023

Fed remains cautious and meets expectations, leaves rates at 5.25/5.50%

Bankinter| The US Federal Reserve (Fed) met expectations and left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%/5.50%. Assessment: The Fed’s statement did not introduce any new developments and the decision met expectations by repeating rates once again. However, the key to the meeting was Powell’s message. In line with the previous meeting, the tone remained cautious. The Fed Chairman once again said that the central bank “will proceed carefully”, avoiding…


Comision europea fachada

European Commission recommends reducing fiscal stimulus to lower Fiscal Deficit by 2024

Bankinter: It is only a recommendation because fiscal policy is the competence of each member state, but it has consequences on inflation, monetary policy and bonds. The EC relaxed the Fiscal Deficit and Public Debt targets due to the CV19 pandemic (2020) and the Russian invasion of Ukraine (February 2022), but for months it has been insisting on the need to return to fiscal discipline in 2024. The key date…


bce lagarde 1

ECB announces decision to hike policy rates by 25bp

Peter Goves (MFS Investment) | Although the ECB didn’t quite explicitly say “we are at peak”, the change in guidance effectively points in that direction in our view. We likely have rates on hold ahead of us now as opposed to ongoing hikes in our view. In other words, unless there is a decisive change in prevailing data trends, we think the ECB is more or less done. The focus…


alemania brandenburgo

German CPI finally stands at 6.1% in August, with core stuck at 5%

Bankinter : August CPI (final) confirms moderation: +6.1% vs +6.1% estimate and preliminary vs +6.2% previously. In month-on-month terms +0.3%, same as estimated, preliminary and previous. Assessment: Unchanged and representing a new moderation in the price level. This is good news as it takes pressure off the ECB to keep tightening its monetary policy. The downside is the entrenchment of underlying inflationary pressures above +5%.


FED julio 2023

Most Fed members believe monetary policy tightening to continue to be necessary

Bankinter| On Wednesday, the Minutes of the last Fed meeting (25/26 July) were published. On that occasion the Fed raised rates +25 b.p. to 5.25%/5.50% and insisted on following a data-dependent approach in future meetings. In the minutes most participants insist on the need to continue to fight inflation, which remains high (+3.2% in July for headline and +4.7% for core). On the other hand, some members warned of the…


euros prestamos

ECB’s tight monetary policy starts to bite with corporate credit at record lows

Link Securities| According to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) bank lending survey published on Tuesday, 2Q2023 saw a record fall in demand for corporate loans to its lowest level since the survey began in 2003. According to banks in the region, credit conditions tightened more than expected in the quarter under review. Banks also tightened conditions and terms further in 2Q2023 The survey also reported that the net tightening since…


banco japon

Japan raises inflation forecast to 2.6% in 2023, up from previous 1.7%

BancaMarch: Japan’s government has raised its inflation forecast to 2.6% for 2023, well above the previous 1.7%. Considering that on Thursday of next week there is to be a meeting of the Central Bank of Japan, the market is closely watching the consequences that this announcement may have on the lax monetary policy that the Asian country has been defending. It should be recalled that, at the beginning of this…


RealState 1

New outlook for the Spanish real estate sector: slowdown in the housing market

Judit Montoriol Garriga (Caixabank Research) | The Spanish real estate market began to slow down in mid-2022 with the shift of direction of monetary policy. Although the ECB has raised benchmark interest rates by 4 pps for the moment, the pace of the slowdown has been gentler than anticipated, leading us to improve the sector’s outlook for 2023. Nevertheless, we continue to expect a significant slowdown in the Spanish real…


China

China’s GDP data point to need for stimulus, but will it come?

China published its second-quarter GDP data on Monday with a big – but disappointing – number, 6.3% growth year on year. The reason for the disappointment comes from the hugely positive base effect, as last year’s second-quarter GDP growth was virtually because of the severe lockdowns happening in Shanghai and elsewhere in the country. The underwhelming growth in the second quarter is not all about the lack of external demand….


Fed marzo 2022 2

Fed focuses message on inflation control and banking sector stability, but without concrete proposals

Bankinter| In his appearance before Congress, Powell maintained the tone and vagueness of his message. Congress has focused most of its questions on banking regulation. Meanwhile, Powell focused his message on inflation control, but without specifying the future. Analysis team’s view: The Fed governor reinforced the stability of the banking sector. But, he did not specify the future of regulation. Powell expects to receive a proposal during the summer. However,…