US Elections: Looking Into A Trump Victory

AXA IM | Markets have reacted to his trade policy proposals, but implications are more far-reaching. A key macroeconomic difference between Clinton and Trump victories is the short-term cyclical outlook, with a more forceful fiscal stimulus under a Trump presidency. This would imply Clinton win (baseline) stronger GDP growth, steeper Fed tightening, a stronger dollar and higher US treasury yields.

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The Bank Of Spain’s Internal Communications About Bankia

It’s undeniable that the latest information which has come out about the Bankia case reveals new areas of responsability. And in the front-line is the worst governor in the Bank of Spain’s history. The correspondence which the head of the Bankia inspectors’ team José Antonio Casaus sent to his superiors is definitive.


Spanish Vidrala’s Q3 16 Results: Full Capacity Has Pros And Cons

EXANE BNP Paribas | Vidrala has been heavily impacted by GBP depreciation (sales down c.7% in Q3). Its lacklustre organic growth (+0.4%) reflects a lack of volume growth and a small increase in prices, but EBITDA margin was up a strong 190bp thanks to: 1) full capacity utilization; 2) energy price tailwind; and 3) a better contribution from the higher-margin plants.


France 2017 Election Primer: Prepare For New Trends And Surprises

EXANE BNP Paribas | France will elect a new President next spring. While many candidates are the same old politicians, the election could provide some surprises. The right is proposing radical reforms for the first time. Marine Le Pen is likely to be in the second round. Finally, Macron is trying to propose a third way.

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Spanish Merlin Properties Is A Fixer-Upper

EXANE BNP Paribas | Merlin’s acquisition of Metrovacesa will create a business which is now difficult to ignore given its scale. The company has various imperfections. However, the opportunity to address these issues alongside operational improvements from Metrovacesa assets underpins Merlin’s re-rating potential.

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