Next week the Spanish government will send to Brussels the country’s macroeconomic figures revised. Although the Spanish Minister Luis De Guindos anticipated that Spain’s GDP is to grow an average of 1,5% in 2014 and 2015, those “will be less moderate than reality”. Bank of Spain’s forecasts released on Thursday support these optimistic prospects thanks to a 0.4% GDP’s growth in 1Q14.
A detailed look at Spanish central bank’s figures proves that domestic demand contributed by 0.3% to that GDP’s year-on- year progress, basically due to three main reasons: a new increase of private consumption, a rise of investments in capital goods, and also the contraction of spendings on the contruction sector, which probably illustrates the adjustments in civil works. This pace of growth makes domestic demand contribution to Spanish 1Q14’s GDP match that of foreign trade.
The external demand adds the remaining 0.2% to GDP, although it will underlie a fall of imports against exports.
This 0.4% increase of GDP agrees with Spanish anlaysts’s forecasts.
“The message seems rather positive within the process of competitiveness’s recovery, balance sheets’s reorganising and structural reforms, as well as proves a decent growth pace despite credit conditions are still under pressure. We think that Spain can hold this same pace of growth during all year 2014,” JP Morgan’s experts commented.