The Melancholy Of Two Wasted Years

Analysis and evaluations on Spain which do not have Europe as a reference are pointless. We depend on Europe, but in a rather odd way, because Europe is a carcass without a head and without any initiative. Europe has left us in doubt over our deficit because we were in an electoral period. And this brutal wear and tear, which has not been good for us, on the contrary, has not ended. After June 27, whatever happens, the government will be even weaker, whichever it is.

During this “caretaker” interlude, the government has let the separatists and those who are against the system do their own thing. And they have become stronger. They control town councils and regions. And it’s no consolation that the alliances are fragile, because the decisions they are making have one goal: to destroy institutions, ties, to wear out a bitter majority like the one in any EU country. The increasing weakness of power, its fragmentation, will leave us on June 26 with a government in handcuffs, particularly if it’s based on a coalition, no matter how wide-ranging that may be.

A weak government is its country’s worst affliction, according to Napoleon. A weak government is in the hands of pressure groups, whether they be right or left-wing. It’s difficult for them to make decisions which affect any of those groups, like controlling the deficit or maintaining public order. Each one will mess the government around until it is worn down. The only solution is for the economy to really recover, but that is very difficult in this political context. There needs to be a minimum of confidence that certain norms will be complied with, and that they are not going to be changed just for the sake of it. For example, fiscal pressure on such and such an activity. Take a look at their plans and you will see that the only probability is total confusion for the employer-investor. Someone will say: we are growing, creating employment. Yes, but it’s worrying that the latest unemployment data showed that its the autononomous regions which have created the most jobs, while private employment is declining.

But the regions’ free bar will stop, it has to stop. And only the government can stop it. Or if this chaos continues, we will have to consider the possibility of being bailed out. Perhaps we should beg for this.

 

*Image: Archive

About the Author

Miguel Navascués
Miguel Navascués has worked as an economist at the Bank of Spain for 30 years, and focuses on international and monetary economics. He blogs in Spanish at: http://http://www.miguelnavascues.com/