NEW YORK | There was a final statement, yet not a consensus about how to tackle the euro zone turmoil. Everyone in Camp David hoped that Greece will remain in the euro. For the first time, the argument that Europe cannot face more spending cuts gained widespread support. G8’s final communiqué showed a big push to German Chancellor Angela Merkel: it is urgent to bring deficits down through austerity measures…
LONDON | Investment company Threadneedle told clients that the market has increasingly moved its US economic forecasts towards more conservative views. Threadneedle explained in a technical note that, although it had updated its forecast for US economic growth in 2012 from 1.5% to 2% after some strong first quarter data, it too remained of the view that the US economy will slow in the second half of the year. Analysts said some…
NEW YORK | In the idyllic setting of the Catoctin Mountains of Maryland 63 miles from the White House, world leaders gathered on Friday for the G8 summit. This time, the agenda has real economic substance. Will the intimacy of the lodges in the wilderness help to solve the eurodrama? The pressure is expected to be high on Mrs Merkel. She is the only one representing the “austerians” versus the…
LONDON | The financial City of London would pose as an unlikely critic of Germany’s tactics throughout the long euro rope pulling between the peripheral rotten economies and the apparently unstoppable Teutonic motor. Report after report has come out from City analysts supporting how urgent austerity packages were and pointing at every bad decision made by Greek, Irish, Portuguese, Italian and Spanish politicians, who should have known better. Truth be told,…
NEW YORK | “Cutting alone really doesn’t do it, and that’s why I’m linking the serious budget reductions — real increase to austerity — with a plea to the voters: please increase taxes temporarily on the most affluent and everyone else with a quarter of a cent sales tax,” California governor Jerry Brown said in releasing his $91 billion general fund budget plan this week. These are not easy days for…
After the news came in of French president François Hollande’s brief encounter with the ever irresistible forces of nature, I began to consider in all seriousness what my mother said about the just sworn-in European leader: “poor thing,” she had muttered during our daily London-Valencia FaceTime conference, which is motherly talk for the more common ‘that guy’s a loser’ remark. Indeed, he was struck by lightning twice in just hours. Here’s the…
MADRID | The injection of public money and nationalisation of Bankia ends a compelling need with a solution, earlier discarded, that in the US or the UK has been long ago adopted but neither the Germans or the French want to face, in spite of many of their banks being as weak as some the Spanish entities may be. François Hollande’s arrival to the presidency of France is also good news:…
By Tania Suárez, in Madrid | The director of strategy and macroeconomics at Inverseguros SVB, Alberto Matellán, believes that austerity and growth are not only compatible but should be applied together. Mantellán thinks the European Central Bank could put again in use its monetary policy tools, such as the Securities Market Programme (SMP) or the Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO). Should the ECB lower again interest rates for the euro zone? The…
All the way from Afi analysts in Madrid, we got this simple and colourful chart comparing purchasing managers index figures of different countries in September 2011 (because it was the month when global manufacturing activity recorded the latest lowest levels) and March-April 2012, with a third column that brings up the variation between those dates. The fact is that cyclical divergence between the euro zone and the rest of the…
NEW YORK | Restless and suspicious. That is how Wall Street seems to be feeling after France and Greece’s pushback against austerity measures. U.S. stock futures fell on Monday, while Treasuries gained. Investors wonder whether the stimulus advocated will derail bailout deals. And what will happen now that the Sarkozy-Merkel tandem is broken and the Greek parliament will have three new anti-bailout parties represented. This added to the uncertainty created by…