Bankinter analysis team believes that the cut in the deposit rate to -0.50% (from -0.4%) further penalises keeping excess liquidity in the ECB. Tiering (or the method of charging in tranches) only partially mitigates the impact with a volume of up to six times the coefficient of obligatory reserves (currently 1.0%) exempt. This favours banks with higher and more internationally diversified ratios of credit investment/typical resources like Banco Santander and BBVA.
Bankia Estudios | Spanish GDP slows more than expected. The provisional GDP data for Q219 has disappointed, by registering a quarterly growth of 0.5%, one tenth below our forecast and the Bank of Spain´s estimate.
Morgan Stanley | We lower profit estimates for Spanish banks at an average 4.6-5% for 2020-2021 given the sensitivity of these to a further flattening of the rate curve as a result of a more dovish ECB.
Bankinter | Bankia has presented its first quarter results (Q12019). We highlight the principal figures compared to the consensus: Interest margins: 526 M€ (-4,7% vs 502 M€ expected); Gross margin: 813 M€ (-13,3%; vs 814 M€ expected); Operational margin: 357 M€ (-16,6%; vs 355 M€ esperado); Annual net profit: 205 M€ (-10,8% vs -40 M€ in Q4 18 vs 196M€ expected).
Manuel Moreno Capa | “We need to re-think what principles and values we want to manage in the banking sector, and maintain a clear philosophy. We tell our teams that they can not attain their objectives at the cost of principles. The values are most important, and the objectives have to be subordinated to the values of the entity if we want to improve the reputation and image of the banking sector,” explains Bankia’s CEO José Sevilla.
The European bail-out of our banking system saved its skin. Now, a decade later, parliament and the Bank of Spain are investigating what happened.
Fernando Rodríguez |Bankia’s stock market gains after the news that it will takeover BMN exceeded market consesus. But the future of Bankia’s stock price in the short-term will depend on the small print and the ratios of the merger.
The deadlines for the merger of Bankia and BMN will be accelerated once it has been confirmed there is no interest on the part of other investors. The tie-up is expected to be completed after the summer and will be the starting gun for the next round of sector consolidation.
The banks’ non-performing loans ratio continues to show signs of recovery amid the ongoing deleveraging process on the part of households and companies. The balance of impaired loans fell by 18.3% in May to 121,865 billion euros. Against this backdrop, Banco Sabadell and Bankia were the first banks to present their first half results’ report. And the Spanish stock market reacted in a completely different way to each report.
Fernando Fernández is a member of the board at Bankia and Red Eléctrica. Apart from the challenges presented by the macroeconomic environment and the technology revolution, he believes that Spain’s banks have to establish a new kind of relationship with their clients and consolidate the sector’s new size.