BANKING SYSTEM

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Global Banks Outlook 2015: A year of diverging interest rates

ZURICH | By UBS analysts | We have a neutral stance on global banks as we look to 2015. Given a modest recovery in global growth in 2015E, credit demand is expected to remain sluggish while the margin outlook is likely to be mixed, reflecting diverging policy rate trends. We expect to see good cost control as banks strive for greater efficiency while overall asset quality should remain stable albeit picking up in emerging markets. While earnings momentum has been negative this year, we think current valuations are fair, with the sector trading on 10.1x PE and 1.0x PBV versus a sector ROE of 12.4%, on our 2015 estimates.