BoAML | The risks of a no deal Brexit have risen in our view. No deal is not our base case, but that is now a close call.
Santander Corporate & Investment | The publication of results is nearing its end, and European company profits have shown resilience in face of a global environment dominated by uncertainty: the trade war, volatility in emerging markets and weakness in their currencies, Brexit, the growth of populism etc. Spanish companies are very exposed to international markets, given that only a third of their benefits come from the domestic market.
Shaun Riordan | The elections to the European Parliament in the UK were always something of a farce. Because of the inability of the British political class to decide what kind of Brexit it wanted, if indeed it wanted Brexit at all, British voters were forced to elect members to the parliament of a Union which, in theory at least, they will leave in five months. But they were also something of an anti-climax.
Ofelia Marín-Lozano (1962 Capital SICAV) | 12 April was the deadline for the UK to decide of it was going to leave the EU without an agreement or, on the other hand, seek a new delay. The worst scenario for markets, a no deal Brexit, has been ruled out. The EU have granted the UK a new delay, which ends at the end of October 2019, to see if they can finally come to some kind of conclusion.
Jonathan Perraton via The Conversation UK | EU leaders have agreed a short extension to Brexit until October 31 at the latest, in order to give the British parliament time to agree a deal. This date avoids the UK still being a member when the next EU budget cycle starts – but what does it mean for the “divorce bill”, the money the UK will pay the EU after its departure?
After a period of gloomy macro data, market watchers are starting to see the light. According to Allianz research, the share of “bulls” has increasedfrom around 30% at the start of the year to currently 54% net. At the same time, the volatility index is some 20% below its historical average, in spite of the much greater uncertainty facing the world economy.
Shaun Riordan | This week is billed as, yet another, crucial week in the Brexit process. Prime Minister May will yet again bring her withdrawal deal back to parliament. Little has changed since she last presented it, and it looks like being rejected again.
Ana Fuentes (Strasbourg) | Where should the EU look in the future? What are the priorities? At a time of rapid change, protectionism and nationalist populism, the European Parliament has approved a document of minimums called The Future of Europe. As inevitably happens in such plural institutions, it is neither binding nor completely satisfies anyone, but sets out the challenges the still 28 members have to confront together if the European project is not to diluted. We discuss it with Ramón Jáuregui, socialist MEP and rapporteur of the text.
Julia Pastor | From an English father and a Ghanaian mother, Afua Hirsch is a journalist, writer, lawyer and activist for human rights. Her first book, “Brit (ish): On race, identity and belonging”, published current year, has stirred UK historic consciousness by exploring the origin of the identity crisis that the country is suffering, and which, no doubt, has its reflection on the winding road of Brexit.
Ultimately, May’s deal represents a compromise of the vague objectives for Brexit. However, Brexit has never been about compromise and with both sides of the debate envisaging different outcomes to the process, neither appear about to make concessions now. In this context, analysts at AXA IM continue to see the ‘most likely’ outcome as a compromise, similar in substance to the current Agreement.