Olivier de Berranger (La Financière de l’Échiquier) |”Let’s have fun”. Have the words of President Charles de Gaulle been prophetic? He was against the United Kingdom’s entry into the Common Market in 1963… More than 50 years later, although the tribulations of Brexit may cause amusement or disappointment, the truth is that they have been poisoning investors’ lives for more than three years, by separating them from British stocks. However, the outcome of this endless soap opera could well change the situation.
David Alexander Meier (Julius Baer) | Thursday’s EU summit is the last date to secure a deal before Saturday’s ‘deal or delay’ deadline. Due to difficulties in finding a deal and parliamentary ratification, we rather expect a delay. We remain short-term Neutral on the pound given a delay and long-term Bullish, as the only way to Brexit is through a deal.
Ana Fuentes | After various decades in the private and public sector, Josina Kammerling, responsible for regulation at the CFA Institute, knows in detail the ins and outs of the financial market and its rules. She can therefore indicate its pros and cons. And do so in fluent English, Dutch, French or Italian … And also in perfect Spanish learnt as a girl in Burgos, where she moved when she was two: “My father opened the Heineken factory there” she recalls with a smile.
Johannes Müller (DWS) | Three months ago, we warned that: “The outlook for the world economy is getting cloudier. Escalating trade tensions could trigger further downgrades.” Sadly, this has now come to pass. In several export-oriented economies, notably Germany and Japan, we had to cut our growth forecasts for both 2019 and 2020. For the U.S., we have left our 2020 forecast unchanged at 2%, but now expect just 2.3% for 2019, 0.2% less than three months ago.
Experts at UBP believe that fiscal stimulus or, more effectively, fiscal- monetary coordination presents the most potent upside catalyst to risk-assets.
Thomas Lehr (Flossbach von Storch) | The US-China trade conflict is keeping markets on tenterhooks. Should we therefore avoid equities? We encourage investors to be courageous. Quality prevails. An argument in favour of long term investment.
Shaun Riordan │Many of us are already enjoying our summer holidays. Others are packing now, looking forward to relaxing on the beach, or in the mountains. Wherever we are taking our holidays we should make the most of them. A perfect storm is brewing which could hit Europe hard in the autumn, with devasting economic and political consequences.
Shaun Riordan | Prime Minister, You enter office in the middle of the UK´s greatest peacetime crisis. Your optimism and can-do spirit are admirable. You will need to be decisive. But your actions need to be based on reality not fantasy, especially in relation to Foreign policy, on which this Memorandum focuses…
Peter Isackson via Fair Observer | Boris Johnson’s march to Downing Street is becoming a surreal, even psychedelic, cartoon hovering between tragedy and farce.
BoAML | The risks of a no deal Brexit have risen in our view. No deal is not our base case, but that is now a close call.