All European Union members except the UK are meeting today in Rome to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the so considered seed of their club: The treaty of Rome. An event with a bittersweet taste however since the participants will start designing a common strategy on Brexit, the first exit of a member state.
By end March, the UK will trigger the nuclear button splitting it from the European Union. A landmark decision which will determine both parties’ future, irrespective of the side of the English Channel they find themselves on.
The UK Supreme Court dismissed on Tuesday the government’s argument that May could simply alone to invoke Article 50 to begin two years of divorce talks. Considering conservative majority in Parliament that passing a bill should not force PM to reconsider her “hard brexit” plans. Dissenting MPs can successfully amend the bill to increase scrutiny over negotiations.
Last year, IAG transported 100.67 million passengers (+14%) and improved its occupancy rate to 81.6%, (+0.2%), thanks to a good performance from its routes to Europe and North America.
We can expect a rise in interest rates in 2017, driven up by the Fed, but fuelled by doubts over Europe. And I would bet the dollar will appreciate against the euro and the yuan – and sterling – although I am not normally a betting man.
In the aftermath of Mr Trump’s victory, stock markets surged, building on promises of strong stimuli and sizeable tax breaks. As time goes on, they are reappraising the short-term outlook, since fundamental changes may take more than one year to materialise. No wonder investors are turning cautious, cashing in on early gains.
The UK’s Brexit has to build its own engine from scratch, and decide in which direction it wants the new car to go.
Julis Baer Research | This ruling against May came rather surprisingly and nourished hopes of the Brexit opposition that Parliament would still be able to prevent a Brexit. We however do not believe that Parliament would fully cancel the Brexit, standing up against the majority of voters. Furthermore, the last word is not spoken yet, it will depend on the Supreme Court.
It’s not even four months since the UK referendum on remaining in the European Union, resulting in the successful vote for what is known as Brexit. The questions on which Great Britain wants to base its exit negotations from March 2017 are being able to maintain all the advantages of an EU member, like the freedom of movement of goods and capital, while still controlling its own borders.
The impact of Brexit on the markets has gone through different stages. There was the initial upheaval in the wake of the referendum result, which had its maximum effect on June 24 when the Ibex recorded its biggest ever fall. And now the stock market and European public debt yields have recovered to pre-Brexit levels.