via Macropolis | “So, you are here?” said the check-in attendant at Berlin’s Tegel Airport. The man, who appeared to have a Somali background, had a charming smile. His comment was in reference to my British passport and the fact the UK was holding its Leave/Remain referendum on the same day.
The anti-Brexit supporters continue to fire a battery of the most dire predictions, without there really being any reliable information or models on which to form such precise and one directional forecasts. Furthermore, they are shooting themselves in the foot because Brexit is irreversible.
Francesco Saraceno | Much has been said, already, and even more will be said in the coming hours/days/weeks/months/years, on Brexit. I have little to add. So here is what I see as a series of notes to self. For those who are already tired of reading pages and pages, I can summarize what follows in a sentence: We should focus more on policies than on institutions.
The rise in the Ibex 35 in the first few minutes of Monday’s session, when it rose 3% to over 8,000 points could not last. And it didn’t. Half an hour after the market opened, it began its downward spiral once again towards the 7,700 level. It lost over 2% and stayed there almost until the close, with the fall mirrored in the rest of the European exchanges.
The majority vote by Britons to leave the European Union (EU) was an act of raw democracy. Millions of ordinary people refused to be bullied, intimidated and dismissed with open contempt by their presumed betters in the major parties, the leaders of the business and banking oligarchy, and the media.
Brexiters hailed their victory with muted enthusiasm and undisguised concern. Prominent ‘leave’ campaigners called for restraint and patience, highlighting the need to assess strategy carefully before moving for a pull-out. They adamantly rejected triggering the process before informal talks with European partners could pave the way for a balanced outcome.
“The EU has to make itself attractive” in the wake of Brexit. Brussels is trying to force London to accelerate its departure process “as soon as possible, despite how painful that may be,” according to European Commission President Jean Claude Junker. During the European Summit on Tuesday, the the scenario for the new EU with 27 Member States will be presented.
The management of the UK’s NO to Europe is not simple. In the first place, because the interests of the Brexit camp are contradictory and they have told too many lies which the British people are not going to forget.
Shaun Riordan | The British have voted decisively to leave the EU. The demographics of the referendum suggest that ordinary voters wanted to give the metropolitan elite kicking. For the British, this was their Trump moment. But now begin the months and years of uncertainty. This is not a single event which markets can price in, but rather a process which will continue to drive volatility in currency and equity markets for the foreseeable future.
Natixis AM Global | Everyone seems to agree that a Brexit either will create market volatility or already is creating volatility, or both. That’s hardly the news. I think it’s perhaps more interesting to consider the type of volatility created; that is, one with a very uncertain path of interconnected events.