Theresa May’s defeat in the British Parliament is historic with a gap of 230 votes (432 votes against 202 against). What can happen? Philippe Waechter from Ostrum AM have in mind a scheme with all the alternatives. Can Theresa May still be credible after her terrible defeat? We can imagine general elections but who will take the 10 Downing Street?
A more severe than expected economic downturn, the ongoing US-China trade war, eventually a hard Brexit, and unsolved challenges such as protectionism or the lack of confidence in the euro. Here are some trends that will impact markets in 2019.
Julia Pastor | From an English father and a Ghanaian mother, Afua Hirsch is a journalist, writer, lawyer and activist for human rights. Her first book, “Brit (ish): On race, identity and belonging”, published current year, has stirred UK historic consciousness by exploring the origin of the identity crisis that the country is suffering, and which, no doubt, has its reflection on the winding road of Brexit.
Ultimately, May’s deal represents a compromise of the vague objectives for Brexit. However, Brexit has never been about compromise and with both sides of the debate envisaging different outcomes to the process, neither appear about to make concessions now. In this context, analysts at AXA IM continue to see the ‘most likely’ outcome as a compromise, similar in substance to the current Agreement.
Delaying and praying seems to be the right summary of Theresa May’s latest strategy. Before yesterday’s statement there was always a date to look forward to that at least held the potential of bringing progress in Brexit negotiations.
After the winding management of Brexit, the EU Court of Justice in Luxembourg have opened a window for the UK to decide remain in the European Union in the end. The high court announced on Monday that Britain is free to revoke its so-called Article 50 notice any time before it’s due to leave the bloc on March 29., with no penalty.
Chandra Roy | Back in June 2016, the Brexit referendum vote delivered a momentous verdict that defied all media speculation, procrastinators and polls delivering the unexpected result of a marginal majority to leave the European Union. But what exactly was under contention?
University of Surrey) via The Conversation | With the centenary of the end of World War I in November, there have been plenty of sombre occasions for European leaders of late. But perhaps none have been quite as sombre as the brief meeting to sign the withdrawal agreement detailing the UK’s departure from the European Union.
DWS | Sometimes, it is better to remain silent than to speak up and remove all doubt about your ignorance. Having been inundated by comments on what to make of the latest twist in the Brexit drama, however, we too feel compelled to add our bit. Amidst all the recent turbulence, we believe three conclusions can already be drawn, none of them particularly comfortable for British financial markets.
By David F. Lafferty (Natixis) | Over the last few months, we have written, spoken, and tweeted incessantly about the coming headwinds to both the global economy and the capital markets. In July we noted that despite the current macroeconomic momentum, there are many factors that are likely to hamper growth by the time we get to late 2019 or 2020. These include tighter monetary policy that will actually begin to pinch growth, fading tax-cut and fiscal stimulus (especially if the Democrats take the US House of Representatives in the midterm elections), continued trade and export headwinds, a Brexit supply-shock to the UK and EU, and so on.