Natixis AM | The upcoming UK referendum on EU membership appears to be a knife’s edge contest. Although financial markets have already felt some impact, if the vote produces an “out” result, global markets face additional turbulence this summer.
Multinationals such as Airbus or Aviva Investors are arguing in favour of the ‘In’ vote, warning that a possible Brexit would push the UK into recession before year-end.
Time is moving on. After the more than satisfactory agreement reached by Prime Minister David Cameron after renegotiating the UK’s relationship with the European Union, the countdown to the June 23rd referendum has begun. And as happened with the Scottish referendum, the British government is ready to bring out all the big guns.
The Chancellor’s latest Budget saw the cumulative forecast for government borrowing over the next five years revised up by close to GBP 40bn. This reflects both weaker cyclical growth and also the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) taking a gloomier view on UK trend productivity growth.
Brexit supporters do not need to make any noise. They have been decades using the EU as a scapegoat for their problems of excessive regulation, arbitrary taxation, lack of transparency… Now it’s Cameron who must prove the opposite.
Great Britain’s exit from the European Union could be the straw that breaks Europe’s back. So heads of state and government have worked hard on devising a new tailor-made suit for the UK.
UBS | A date for referendum is set and the pound is getting pounded. The United Kingdom reached an agreement with the European Union and the UK announced that the referendum vote will take place on 23 June 2016.
Maxime Larivé | European governments have let a member state of the European Union (EU) cherry-pick the terms of its place in the union, potentially setting an irreversible situation. But should the United Kingdom remain an EU member under its new agreement? This question should be asked to all EU citizens.
Just as he did with the Scottish referendum, David Cameron has also pulled it off in the case of Brexit: the possibility that the UK will leave the EU. His negotiations with the EU have been efficient, giving him freedom of action on issues which, in any event, will have to be reformed, like the free movement of citizens.