central banks


Central banks and normalisation policy

Could the central banks dampen the financial markets’ enthusiam?

Kommer van Trigt (Robeco) | The markets are discounting that in the next few months there will be more certainty surrounding the central banks’ normalisation strategy. In its quarterly outlook, Robeco’s Global Fixed Income Macro team says it makes sense for the central banks to begin to normalise their policies.



inflation is not priority of central banks

Controlling Inflation Is Still Not The Priority Of Central Banks

Despite quantitative easing and 3 years of more synchronised developed economy growth, it is not clear that inflation has really got any traction. Technology, globalisation, unemployment and changes in working practices have all contributed to the lack of inflationary pressures and still do.


Modern monetary theory

The Huge Fallacy Of The Modern Monetary Theory: Money Is Not Free

There’s a new monetary theory doing the rounds here which claims to be revolutionary: the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT. Not to be confused with the Market Monetary Theory). I agree with some of its points. But when some of its supporters say the state deficit and debt are not important – that they don’t have damaging consequences – the theory becomes a huge deliberate fallacy.


central banks' new currency war

Do The Central Banks Determine Interest Rates?

I believe central banks don’t control long-term rates – which are decisive for investment – and that they can influence them in what we would call normal circumstances, namely when GDP is expanding and inflation is at its optimum level. The central bank trys to control the private market’s expectations, but it doesn’t always succeed.


central banks

On the Political Nature of Monetary Policy

Francesco Saraceno | Munchau recently argued that central banks’ choices are increasingly political in nature, especially if their mandate is broad, as is the case for example of the Fed. His argument is that a broad mandate implies tradeoffs, and as such it does not go well with central bank independence.


central banks' new currency war

Central banks’ messages revive the ‘currency war’

The last meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have fuelled sharp moves in the major currencies. The euro has extended its year highs against the dollar (it’s over 1,08 against the greenback) and on Thursday it appreciated over 1.3% against the pound (the exchange rate is at 0,86). Is near a new “currency war”?


central banks

Central Banks Face A Moral Dilemma With Monetary Normalisation

Of all the arguments I have heard against monetary normalisation, I would definitely highlight the potential destablising effect which it could have on some financial markets. And I am not emphasising this in a positive way: I sincerely believe that delaying a decision which can help reduce uncertainty in the medium and long-term to avoid a negative impact (which I think will be limited) in the short-term is, without any doubt, questionable.


debt-coin-tower

Living with a Debt Problem

J. L. M. Campuzano  (Spanish Banking Association) | Debt is essential for growth. And in fact, the Big Recession, which was sparked by the US subprime crisis, lies in the high level of debt generated during the previous decade known as the Great Moderation. So just as periods of expansion are favourable  for building up debt, this has to be adjusted during periods of recession (and depression).