central banks

Musical Chairs at the ECB

Joachim Fels (PIMCO)By cutting the deposit rate to -50 basis points, extending forward guidance, introducing a two-tiered system for excess reserves that mitigates the adverse impact of negative rates on bank profitability, and resuming open-ended net asset purchases of EUR 20 billion per month, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently provided clarity about its prospective monetary policy stance for the foreseeable future and thus well beyond the change in leadership from Mario Draghi to Christine Lagarde that takes place at the end of October.

Carry Me Home

Chris Iggo (AXA IM) | The market is trading like it believes the mid-cycle correction story rather than the impending recession narrative. Equity and credit markets are doing “ok” and rates have bottomed for now.

Central banks' QE was a powerful driver of the economy and markets

Central banks do what they can

DWS | “First, do no harm.” That command may, or may not have been part of the Hippocratic Oath among medical practitioners since ancient times. Central bankers, however, appear increasingly keen to follow that maxim on both sides of the Atlantic. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) once again lowered key rates by “only” 25 basis points to a target corridor of 1.75%-2.00%. And once again, its reasons included subdued inflation as well as risks resulting from weaker global growth and various trade conflicts, justifying another insurance cut. In that sense at least, President Trump has seems to have influenced central-bank policy.

Draghi leaves an outstanding heritage

J. P. Marín-Arrese | Against all odds, Draghi has secured consensus over his stimuli package by a cunny trade-off between the subdued intensity of individual measures in exchange of ample coverage. His brilliant brinkmanship as Chair of the ECB facilitates the task of his successor as Ms Lagarde can wait-and-see comfortably cushioned by a strong and comprehensive arsenal relieving her of the need to change course for many months to come.

The unintended consequences of saving the world from the financial crisis

Niel Dwane (Allianz GI) | The response of central banks to the financial crisis 10 years ago may have saved the world from a devastating depression, but it also created a host of unforeseen effects – from more indebtedness to more economic inequality. Looking back at what we got right – and what went wrong – what lessons can we take away for the future?

The ECB poised to loosen money conditions

JP Marín-Arrese | Christine Lagarde’s nomination ensures the ECB will fully preserve Draghi’s heritage. It will certainly deliver a substantive loosening in monetary policy over the coming months. Everyone expects the first move to materialise this week, probably a rate cut. Anything short of a clear message in the coming press conference would deeply disappoint the markets. Whatever happens next Thursday, more robust action will materialise before the year close.

Lower rates, no recession

Chris Iggo (AXA IM) | Navigating through all the noise out there, it seems the most sensible expectation that investors should have is described by “lower rates but no recession”. Central banks were more dovish again this week and the Fed looks as though it is ready to meet markets expectations on cutting rates. There are risks to growth from a range of things, but we shouldn’t underestimate the power of the easier monetary policy message.

Jackson hole

The Fed Sneezes, The World Central Banks Catch A Cure

BoAML | A combination of weaker growth and low inflation is driving an ongoing monetary easing. So far this year, nine out of the 35 central banks we actively cover have cut rates and only three have raised rates. Over the rest of the year, we expect cuts by 14 central banks,

FDI projects in Europe fell 4% in 2018, according to EY

Intermoney | In 2018, the number of foreign direct investment (FDI) projects completed in the Old Continent (according to a survey by EY) fell by 4%, even if the falls were greater in the UK and Germany where the fall was about 13% compared to stability in France. However, the countries with the biggest falls were Italy (-63%) and Ireland (-52%).

Markets: There will be opportunities throughout the year…

Renta4 | Markets have advanced much in little time, with advances of 20% in Europe and 25% in the US in the last four months. This strong performance has been produced in an environment of clearly accommodative central banks, although the market “seeks” even more, discounting interest rate cuts both in the US (probability 50%) and in the Eurozone although to a lesser degree (probability 20%). At the same time, dissension is emerging in the heart of the ECB about the deposit rate