Investors worldwide are trembling at the epidemic that is currently crippling China. With good reason? This is a guest commentary by Frank Sieren. The best-selling author has lived in Beijing since 1994 and reports exclusively from China for Flossbach von Storch AG.
Alphavalue | The magnitude of the downward revisions to the sectors should not come as a big surprise. In a very negative case (“worst case scenario”), the luxury sector could lose 34% and may come as an unpleasant surprise. The Stoxx600 would drop by 15% if fundamentals are threatened again. Although they were not a problem 10 days ago, it seems that sensitivity has increased now.
Most economists were probably expecting a fairly easy ride at the beginning of 2020. However, unforeseen exogenous events such as the outbreak of China coronavirus are standing in the way, generating a high level of uncertainty. In the opinion of Gilles Moëc , Chief Economist at AXA IM, that now ” economic policy could be on autopilot is not very consensual”.
Christian Gattiker (Julius Baer) | Investors seeking protections may consider stocks in the healthcare and internet space, which are less exposed. However, more importantly, the recent outbreak does not change our medium- and long-term constructive view on Chinese equities. We are inclined to buy on weakness in the equity market at this stage.