Mr Trump would be wise to avoid further threatening once he’s made clear that the US will immediately retaliate should North Korea launch even a harmless attack close to Guam. Undoubtedly Mr Kim got the message. That said, no-one knows how he might react next time.
The biggest financial risk this August – a month particularly prone to financial crises, like the last one which began in August 2007 – is geostrategic: the ongoing misunderstanding between Trump and North Korean leader Pyongyang.
Steve Keller via Atlantic Sentinel | Last week, I wrote about Donald Trump’s soft support among Republicans. Democrats already strongly disapprove of his bigotry, buffoonery and right-wing ideology. In order to dip down to Nixonian or Bush ’43 levels — high 20s, low 30s — he will have to lose support from conservatives and Republican-leaning independents.
Reagan is a precedent for Trump as Krugman says. We can envisage what Trump’s early years will be like thanks to Reagan. And we could see a similar situation to what was known in the Reagan years as the twin deficits due to the size of the fiscal and external deficits.
In the aftermath of Mr Trump’s victory, stock markets surged, building on promises of strong stimuli and sizeable tax breaks. As time goes on, they are reappraising the short-term outlook, since fundamental changes may take more than one year to materialise. No wonder investors are turning cautious, cashing in on early gains.
I hate this endless temptation for bracketing time into what we call “years.” Time is time and, by definition, there are no interruptions. The problems which beset us in 2016 are still here, whether it’s terrorism or open warfare or Spain’s ingovernability. Thinking it’s going to be very different in 2017 is deceiving ourselves.
As far as the global economy is concerned, 2017 will be the year when new US President Donald Trump will make his mark. That said, how far his influence will reach is still uncertain as it is still too soon to know how many of his policies will be implemented.
Those old jobs in productive manufacturing companies which exported from the developed countries to half the world are never coming back. You can’t suddenly use protectionism to reverse such a huge change which has taken place throughout the world.
There is a statistic link between profits and investment, in the US, so a drop in the former determines a recession in the following quarter. But the Trump effect is likely to mean another imminent recession will have to wait.